South America Daily Snow

By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago July 22, 2023
It’s Going to Absolutely DUMP at Mid and Upper Elevations Saturday
Summary
Rain has transitioned to snow and we're now on the right side of this storm. Temperatures are still dropping and snow levels will continue to fall, with more snow to come. A moderate storm is still on tap for early next week followed by a final wave of moisture mid-week focusing on the southern resorts. Beyond that, the models show a ridge setting up with a break in the action.
Short Term Forecast
Upper elevations of many resorts have seen heavy wet snow so far, with rain mixing in down low. Snow levels have been slowly falling since Thursday night, with rain changing to snow throughout the day. As of this morning, snow levels were sitting around 1200m at Cerro Catedral, which is a bit above their base. Temperatures were above freezing at low elevations for most resorts on Friday. Cerro Bayo has already seen 30 - 50 cms at upper elevations, with 40 - 60 cms up high at Chapelco.
Forecast for Saturday 7/22 - Sunday 7/23
This storm still has a lot to give, and with temperatures continuing to fall, heavy snow is on the way. The heaviest snow will fall Friday night and Saturday, with the biggest totals focused on the north. Resorts like Alto del Padre, Nevados de Chillan, Corralco, Pucon, Chapa Verde, Las Araucarias, Antuco, and Las Lenas are in position for substantial snow. Snow will begin to taper off Saturday afternoon with lingering snow showers through Sunday morning.
An additional 40 - 80 cms are possible at mid-elevations, with even higher amounts at the summits of resorts like Alto del Padre and Nevados de Chillan. Snow totals will vary significantly with elevation though, with much less at lower elevations. The strongest winds have passed, so in addition to the cooler temperatures, the snow will be less wind affected also. Still, with high water content the avalanche danger will be high tomorrow.
Additional snow from Friday night through Sunday from the European model below.
Forecast for Monday 7/24 - Wednesday 7/26
We'll have a break from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning before the next round of snow arrives. Totals from this event look to be in 15 - 30 cm range. This storm will be tracking a little bit farther south, focusing on the resorts in the central part of the region. The heaviest snow will fall from Monday night to Tuesday evening, before becoming showery Tuesday night.
Winds will be strong once again with this storm. Temperatures will start out warm but a cold front will push through the region later Monday night into Tuesday morning. There may be a brief period of mix/rain Monday evening before the cold arrives.
Below is the snowfall forecast from the European model, which generally seems to have a good handle on this event.
Extended Forecast
Outlook for Thursday 7/27 - Monday 7/31
Things briefly dry out Wednesday afternoon, before one final wave moves through the southern Andes. Right now, this looks like some rain/snow showers for the central resorts, with more consistent rain and snow farther south through Thursday. This storm looks warm and not particularly heavy during any twenty four hour period. Finally, a storm taking an even further southerly track is possible later next week, looking warm once again. There's still plenty of time for these last two waves to trend colder or farther north or south, and I'll have an update on those on Monday.
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