Sunny Monday & Tuesday

We're going to see sunny and mostly pleasant weather on Monday & Tuesday of this week. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30's and there should be few clouds. Winds will be light on Monday. On Tuesday as a storm approaches the winds will pick up in the afternoon out of the Southwest up to 35 MPH. 

Wednesday & Thursday Storm

Our mid-week storm is still on track. It's going to be quite minimal in terms of impacts compared to some of the storms we've seen this year. It's been an exceptional year and the storms continuing late into the year is certainly helping us keep our snowpack.

You can see the storm on the GFS favoring central California on Wednesday. The low pressure off the coast will track down along the coast and bring in the chance for heaviest precip on Wednesday and Thursday morning. 

Temps & Winds

Temps will drop by Wednesday with low 30's expected on the mtns. Thursday we should see even colder air work into the region as mid 20's are likely. Winds will be gusty on Wednesday with 50 - 60 MPH gusts out of the Southwest. Thursday we should see lighter winds out of the Northwest only up to 35 MPH. 

This will be a storm that has decently low snow levels by Wednesday afternoon. I'm expecting to see snow levels bottom out in the 3,500 FT range. 

Precip Forecast 

GFS

Euro

The Euro has backed off on the idea of heavier precip in the Ventura County Mtns. It's also showing a bit less precip overall in our region. The GFS is staying the course with heavier amounts of precip in the San Gabriel's. Given the orientation of this system and the lack of very strong forcing I'm expecting Big Bear Mtn. Resort to get the least amount of precip & snow.  

Snowfall Forecast

Generally I'm seeing enough precip to lay down upwards of a foot of snow in the San Gabriel's and about half of that in the Big Bear region. My forecast for the San Gabriel's is 7 - 12 inches of Mt. Baldy. 5 - 7 inches for Mtn. High. The Big Bear region could see 4 - 7 inches from this system. The heaviest snowfall could be on Wednesday during the day and Thursday in the morning. 

I'll continue to update you on the snowfall amounts over the coming days. 

Friday 

We should clear out and see mostly sunny skies on Friday. Highs will be in the low to mid 30's and winds should be lighter as well. Enjoy the fresh snow! 

As I mentioned yesterday the long range continues to look generally drier for us. The first weekend of April should be dry. 

On the Ensemble Means for the GFS and Euro there will still be a trough hanging out over much of the west the 1st week of April. You can see that below. 

This generally means we'll see cooler temps and continue to have the chance for more storms. They are likely to be weak though as we're getting into April. 

The GFS ensembles below show the chance to see a weak system sometime around the 6 - 8th of April. 

GFS Ensembles

The European Ensembles are even a bit more bullish in showing more precip during the later part of the first week of April.

European Ensembles

Given the trough position I could see that panning out, but this is all well over a week out and in the Spring I don't trust the models nearly that far out. 

We got a storm to get through first anyways. 

Till the next one... Mike out.