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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 5 years ago August 26, 2018

Day 43...

Update

The Weather:

It was a hot Summer, but cooler air has finally arrived.  High Temperatures will only be in the 70's this week.

The overnight lows will dip into the 30's.  In the lower valleys like Truckee, temperatures could dip to near freezing the next few nights.  That will be a nice reminder that Summer is almost over...

It does look like we will stay dry the next 10 days.  The GFS shows a trough digging in for Labor Day while the European model keeps the high pressure off the coast closer.  Either way it looks dry but we could see a shot of cooler air.

The Winter:

It's that time of year where I have to start watching the forecast models for storms!  We usually start to see storms start to hit the Pacific NW this time of year.  As we go into September they can dip further South into Northern CA.  

The average snowfall for September on Donner Summit is 2 inches.  That is how much we saw last September as well.  So I will be keeping an eye on the storms now as we head towards Fall...

For the Winter forecast no changes yet.  We are trying to get a better idea of how strong the El Nino may become, and what the PDO (pacific decadal oscillation) and other Pacific Ocean temperatures may look like this Winter.  Overall the ocean looks colder than a few years ago.

August 02' and the current sea surface temps look similar.  That is an analog year if we can get to a moderate El Nino this year.  That season we didn't see snow until October, but it was an average snowfall season.

The Road:

Before I get back to Tahoe and jump back into forecasting, I first have to get back to Tahoe...  I can't believe it, but we are already at day 43 on the road!

We are currently camping just outside the South entrance of Shenandoah National Park.  Since I posted last weekend we spent most of the week in NJ finishing up our visit with family.  We were able to get in some more beach time.

beach

I was able to sneak in a day of surfing with my old surfing buddies.  We saw a little chest high swell come in with offshore winds and nice little barrels.  Surfing was my life growing up on the beach, but I was lighter with stronger paddle arms then...  Unfortunately I didn't take any pics to share, but here is one of me bobbing in the lagoon while my son got in some SUP.

surf

I was able to get in one last fishing session at a secret pond in the woods my buddy (pictured on the opposite shore) and myself found.  It is loaded with bass and a favorite activity of mine every time I get back to NJ.

fish

Of course we had to get in one last trip up to the boardwalk before we left.  My wife took the 2 older kids on the fun rides with their cousins, while I took our youngest on the slower paced rides...

rides

After one last night with dinner on the beach with family, we headed back onto the road with the RV on Friday.  We had a short drive over to Virginia.  After camping a night near the North entrance to the park, we spent the day on Saturday driving along Skyline drive through the park.  We stopped for some scenery.

scenery

and for some nice hikes through the forest!

hike

Today we are just relaxing at the campground.  This place cleared out today.  Most people are likely headed home to get ready for school starting soon.  Here is a look at the trip so far through the first 6 weeks!

trip1

Tomorrow we head South into South Carolina.  We will be spending couple days in Congaree National Park.  Then West into Smoky Mountain National Park.  I actually have family there.  My mom has a cabin on the river right near the entrance to the park, and we will be staying with my sister nearby.  So we have been there quite a few times before, but it will be nice to get back!  First time back since the big fires last Summer.

I will update again next weekend from Tennessee!  We have a few more weeks left on the road as we make our way back to Tahoe.  About 10 more National parks to see on the way!

map2

Hopefully Winter waits for me to get there, I don't want to miss the first snowfall!  

Stay tuned...BA

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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