Seasonal temperatures expected for the upcoming week with highs in the 70's at lake level.
Watching typhoon Jebi that is about to hit Japan this week. It may affect our pattern a week from now, but overall the forecast looks dry.
As we go into September we begin to watch for the first snowfall of the season. September is not known for much snow, but some years we do get some, especially on the higher peaks. Below is the graph for the Central Sierra Snow Lab at 6883' near Donner Summit. I remember those 4 inches in 2007 that came down fast in Truckee.
Not much change to the winter forecast yet. The sea surface temps in the ENSO regions cooled this week. As you can see on the SST map the warm water along the equator is well to the west, and it's a mixed bag to the north as well.
The forecast model average is still showing a moderate El Nino coming on this Winter, but it's expected to be a late bloomer. For the Fall accuweather.com put out this forecast...
Their thoughts are that Summer hangs on into the fall for CA. The Winter forecasts from the weather outlets usually don't come out until October. That's when I try to come up with a final snowfall guestimate for the season as well.
I do a lot of reading between posts to see what all the meteorologists are seeing and discussing. I've seen some discussing possibly a strong El Nino, and other possibly no El Nino at all. Right now looking at the SST's on the map up top, we have a lot of warming that needs to occur to get into El Nino conditions.
Many of you know that the Old Farmer's Almanac released their winter forecast this past week. It was hyped on a lot of media sights. That forecast has the storm track into the Pacific NW and Northern CA, instead of the Southwest like you would expect for a typical El Nino season.
The Old Farmer's Almanac will claim 80% accuracy, but prominent meteorologists have said there is a "zero" percent chance of being right on the Winter season so far in advance. I personally have seen a lot of winter forecasts from prominent weather centers be completely wrong over the years.
Did you know that there is also a "Farmer's Almanac"? Minus the "Old". Here is that forecast that is a lot different than the one above...
I personally like this one a little better from what I have been seeing, but I think the pattern could be drier in the Northwest than what this one is showing if we see the somewhat typical moderate El Nino pattern.
Even after all of these years of forecasting we still have so much to learn about what controls the weather patterns and how to predict them out into the future. But trying every year to be better at it is a lot of fun. It's what keeps the weather enthusiasts going!
For myself and several of the other forecasters here at OpenSnow, we started chasing Winter Storms as a Labor of Love. Long hours of research, watching models, and calculations to share with our friends what we are seeing to try and help us all hit the best snow conditions. Over the last few years, thanks to similarly snow obsessed people like you, we have been able to make it our full-time jobs to work even harder to bring you weather information.
But it is still in our minds the original labor of love, and for all of you I hope that you are taking a break from your laboring this Labor Day weekend to relax, and maybe read along and start getting excited for Winter!
If you have been following along this summer you know that myself and the family have been traveling in our renovated RV around the country to the National Parks. It is partly an effort of mine to bring you more summer content in conjunction with our new summer weather service, OpenSummit.
We are rounding the bend from the Eastern U.S. with the RV pointed westward. This past week we started in Shenandoah National Park and headed south to South Carolina to Congaree National Park.
It was hot and very humid as we arrived. It is a beautiful park full of old growth trees in the floodplain, but really in the summer without the flooding, it is more of a swamp. As we waded through the thick air to the entrance we saw a lot of big spiders, they have plenty to eat. This was the first National Park with this at the entrance!
We were prepared with bug spray, so we headed out into the forest on our hike. It was a beautiful hike with lots of spiders, snakes, lizards, birds, etc. I'm not a fan of snakes, so I was walking a bit faster than the rest of the family...
My wife, on the other hand, will pick them right up and chase me with them... Ugh, thankfully she is just as scared of the big spiders. We spent an extra day relaxing in South Carolina heat before moving on.
On Wednesday we drove to my Sister's house in Tennessee. She lives just outside of Great Smoky Mountains National Park. My mom actually lives in a cottage on the river right by the entrance in Townsend. A lot of my moms side of the family has been moving from NJ to Tennessee over the last several years.
So we not only have been spending time in the park hiking and swimming but also spending time with the family through Labor Day weekend. On Thursday we took a drive North to Mammoth Caves National Park for the day. A beautiful cave system with natural air conditioning that felt great!
The rest of this weekend we have spent hiking in the Smoky Mountains...
and swimming in the river...
It was a lot of fun diving off the rock ledges, but I'm not in beach bod shape to share those photos with you...
Tomorrow we will head down the road towards the west into Hot Springs National Park in Arkansas for a couple days. It's nice to finally be heading back towards home. Here is the journey so far since July.
I'll update again next week, likely from West Texas near New Mexico. I hope you are enjoying the travel content this Summer.
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