Storm Recap:

We saw snow showers most of the day Thursday into Thursday night.  We didn't see as much moisture push in during the afternoon with the final wave as the models were showing.  We were expecting 11-22 inches of additional snowfall.  The heaviest snow showers fell along the north edge of the lake where 14-21 inches is being reported this morning.  The rest of the basin is reporting 7-16 inches.

I was at Homewood yesterday where snow fell through the day.  Winds picked up in the afternoon with several ski resorts closing early.  The snow was much lighter density and was blowing causing low visibility.  The snow quality was much better than on Thursday.

The first half of the storm performed as expected, but the past 24 hours is the first underperforming snowfall day we have seen in a while.  The snowfall was once again less on the south side of the lake where only 7-13 fell in the past 24 hours.  Overall for the storm, we picked up 19-44 inches on the upper mountains, bringing 4-day totals to 2-6 feet.  Quite a range around the lake.  That brings us to just above average for the season.

For the keep me honest report card it was looking good yesterday morning for this storm, but a little ugly this morning.  The final forecast from Wednesday was for 26-48 inches, and we picked up 19-44.  Not too bad, but that ranges from up to 15 inches below forecast on the south side of the lake from less than expected snowfall the past 24 hours, to right on forecast on the north edge of the lake, to over the forecast at Mt. Rose.  I used the 9k forecast for Mt. Rose this storm but they still came in over.

The Forecast:

It is in the 20's this morning on the mountains to near freezing at lake level.  The snow that fell yesterday is fairly light, but a warm front is moving through today with temperatures rising into the 30's above freezing.  That will make the snow thicker so get on it early this morning.

Most of the moisture is streaming into northern CA through tonight.  Most of the forecast models show a high end of 1-2 tenths of total precip near the crest with lesser amounts to the east side of the lake. 

Snow levels are rising to 7,500 feet by this evening.  That means we could see some light rain showers today and tonight on the lower mountains adding even more moisture to the snow.  The upper mountains could see a coating to an inch on the east side of the lake, and 1-2 inches on the west side near the crest.

The NAM model is an outsider showing heavier precip through tonight, so we will have to keep an eye on the radar.

It looks like the flow lifts further north on Saturday and we could see some sun and light winds with highs into the 40's.

Sunday Storm:

Sunday morning the next storm approaching pushes moisture into CA.  Snow levels look to start around 7,000 feet and could sit there for most of the day.  That means we could see rain at lake level and at the base of the lower mountains during the day, and wet snow for the upper mountains.

A cold front moves through during the evening with a final push of heavy precipitation.  Snow levels crash to 4,000 feet behind the front.  We should see snow levels drop to lake level pretty quickly, so expecting mostly snow Sunday night at lake level with the cold front and lingering snow showers overnight before we clear out by Monday morning.

The jet stream pushes in right over Central CA on Sunday.  So plenty of precip should push to the east side of the lake.  We should also see strong winds on the mountains with gusts to 70+ mph possibly closing some upper mountain lifts Sunday on the wind prone mountains.

The forecast models continue to trend wetter with this storm.  The latest model average is 1.3 inches of total precipitation near the crest.  The GFS is the wettest with over 2 inches on the latest run.  The European model shows the average of 1.3 inches as well as the Canadian model.

The GFS is skewing the snowfall forecast high.  Go with the low end of the forecast today and we will fine-tune it again tomorrow.

Behind the Storm:

Monday into Tuesday we clear out with the sun returning.  Temperatures are colder though with highs only in the 30's.  Then we should warm into the 40's at lake level later in the week.

The pattern continues to look dry through the end of January as high pressure is in force off the West Coast blocking any storms.

The long-range models continue to suggest a shifting or weakening of the ridge near the West Coast by the end of the month.  

The GFS and European models show storms trying to push into CA starting around the 1st of February, so we will keep an eye on that.

Stay tuned...BA

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