Yesterday we saw scattered snow showers.  It was a cold day with breezy northeast winds and highs only in the teens on the upper mountains to low 20's at lake level.

There was a nice band of lake effect snow coming off of Pyramid Lake through the day.  That dropped several inches of snow over Reno.  That band was aimed at the northeast corner of Lake Tahoe.  There was also upslope flow from the east over the Sierra front on the east side of the lake from the system spinning over Nevada.  Those two features helped to drop 3-5 inches of snow from Northstar over to Mt. Rose & Diamond peak, and down to Heavenly on the east side of the lake.

There was also some lake enhanced snow showers coming off of Lake Tahoe SW of the lake.  There was a band most of the day just south of Homewood into Desolation Wilderness, but at times it shifted north a little over Homewood helping them to pick up 4 inches.  SW of the lake from Sierra to Kirkwood they also had a little enhancement with 2-4 inches of snow.  NW of the lake and farther SW of the lake the ski resorts saw 0-2 inches.

Here are the 3-day totals of 5-13 inches of snow.  Record-breaking February totals continue to pile up.  Season totals are at 162% of average for the date.

Nice Weather:

We have sunny and cold weather from Friday into Saturday.  Highs in the 20's on the mountains and 30's at lake level.  The winds are light.  We could see increasing clouds by Saturday afternoon as the next system approaches from the north.

On the Edge:

The forecast continues to be a pain for Saturday night through Wednesday.  The original forecast from a few days ago was for a chance for light snow showers Saturday night - Sunday night.  Then dry next week as the moisture streaming into the West Coast off the Pacific would stay to our north with high pressure over CA.

Then, the last 2 days the forecast models began to trend towards speeding up the moisture streaming in off the Pacific to merge with the cold front pushing into northern CA Sunday, suggesting possibly heavier amounts of snow.  Then the moisture stream possibly pushing farther south towards central CA Mon-Wed with heavier snow possible.

Yesterday we discussed the disagreement among the forecast models in how far south the moisture stream off the Pacific pushes Sunday-Wednesday, which would greatly affect the snowfall amounts.  That issue continues this morning.  There is better agreement that the cold front stalls farther north on Sunday with only a chance for light snow showers if any Saturday night-Sunday night,...

...but then a big range of solutions for Monday-Wednesday.

For Saturday night through Sunday night, we may just see clouds and some light snow showers move through.  The latest model runs show the best chance for snow showers Saturday night and lesser chances for Sunday into Sunday night.  Here is the NAM total precipitation forecast through Sunday night.  Not very impressive.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast by Monday morning.

If this forecast holds, it may be a decent weekend for skiing.  High temperatures into the upper 20's on the upper mountains and 30's at lake level.  Winds on Sunday could gust up to 40 mph on the mountain tops.

Monday-Wednesday:

Moisture continues to stream into the West Coast from Oregon down into northern CA Monday through Wednesday.  There are two troughs that will push in, one Monday and one Tuesday.  Both of those will try to push the moisture farther south into Tahoe. 

The question is how successful will they be?  Here are 4 model runs from this morning from driest to wettest scenarios.

The European model with only up to 3-4 tenths of an inch of total precipitation near the crest.

The WPC model showing up to 1.4 inches of total precipitation near the crest.

The GFS model showing up to 2 inches near the crest.  The GFS had up to 5 inches on the last run.

The Canadian model showing up to 4 inches of total precipitation.

You can see that they all have very heavy amounts of total precipitation over Northern CA, but vary on how far south that pushes into the Tahoe basin.  At a 10:1 snow:water ratio, the difference between 3 tenths of an inch and 4 inches is 3 inches up to 3+ feet!  So that is why the forecast is so tricky. 

Looking at all of the models and their ensembles, the average total precipitation amounts near the crest are 1.75 inches.  The snow levels on the latest model runs still suggest snow levels hovering between 5,000-6,000 feet through the period, so it could remain all snow to lake level.  The best chance for snow looks to be with the 2nd trough Tuesday, with the GFS showing the heaviest snow possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast for Monday-Wednesday.

Hopefully, over the weekend we can get a better idea of how much moisture pushes into Tahoe Monday-Wednesday.  For now, expect only a chance for very light and scattered snow showers Sunday through Tuesday, with a better chance for heavier snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the system moves out by Thursday morning.

High pressure builds in by Thursday, and we could see sunny and mild weather with highs into the 40's at lake level into next Friday.

That break doesn't last long, as that trough off the coast pushes into the West Coast as early as next Friday night into next weekend.  We could see a warm storm next weekend with snow levels starting pretty high and falling at the end.

You can see the next storm lined up behind that for early the following week.  We could see several systems move under the ridge in the northeast Pacific into CA the first week of March.

As the MJO moves from the undercutting of the ridge phases into the ridge retrogression phases over the next few weeks, we may see the ridge in the northeast Pacific shift westward with the trough setting up over the West Coast.

We could go from warmer storms the first week of March into colder storms to start the 2nd week of March.  The first 10 days of March continue to look active on the long-range model runs.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S.  Having grown up on the beach, surfing was my life before moving full-time to the mountains.  Over the years I have used Surfline.com to get the latest swell forecast, to see the beach cams, and to read the forecast from the local forecaster for each area.  When I started forecasting storms for skiing and snowboarding for the mountains 13 years ago, I was trying to create similar forecasts for powder chasers as the swell chasers were getting on Surfline.  Chasing storms for both is how my weather obsession started.  Because of that, I am excited about our new partnership with Surfline!  One subscription to help you chase both.  See the new announcement below.

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