Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 4 years ago October 28, 2019

Cold Dry Pattern, But Good for Snowmaking...

Summary

- Expecting dry weather throughout the week. Highs in the 50s at lake level Monday and cooling into the 40s for Tuesday-Wednesday. Then warming back into the 50s Thursday-Friday. Around 10 degrees cooler above 8,000 feet. Overnight lows in the teens in the lower valleys and 20s on the mountains. - We could see some warmer weather by Sunday into early next week. Highs could hit 60 degrees at lake level. - Long-range models suggest the pattern could shift a little the 2nd week of November. Possibly making it easier for storms to push farther south towards northern CA.

Short Term Forecast

We saw a big pattern change on Sunday with a cold trough digging into the Western U.S. It brought snow to the Rockies, but only colder air and wind to the Tahoe region. Several ski resorts fired up their snow guns to start building a base.

ski resorts

The trough dug west into CA Sunday...

trough

...with a strong jet stream rounding the base.

jet stream

The colder/drier air and winds are not good for fire activity. We saw several fires flame up on Sunday across California. But the colder/drier air is the perfect ingredient for snowmaking at the ski resorts. Mt. Rose opened with 1 lift and 4 trails this weekend and is open weekends (Fri-Sun) for now. That kicks off the Tahoe area ski season!

mt rose

We will see a slight warmup in temperatures Monday as the cold air shifts east. Highs warming into the 50s at lake level and 40s on the mountains. Another push of cold air into the West Tuesday-Wednesday will drop temperatures back into the 40s. Then we warm back into the 50s to end the week. But overnight lows remain well below freezing in the teens and 20s all week so snowmaking should continue.

For the upcoming weekend, we will see high-pressure building off the Pacific NW coast. The sunny/dry weather will continue with temperatures possibly warming to near 60 degrees at lake level Sunday into early next week.

ridge

Extended Forecast

The dry pattern may continue through the first week of November. The long-range forecast models have been pretty consistent in keeping the storm track to our north. Here is the total precipitation forecast on the ensemble mean runs which average together dozens of ensemble model runs.

dry

We don't trust forecast models much beyond 10 days especially this time of year. We mainly use long-range models to get an idea of what the pattern could be and whether or not it could be favorable for a drier or wetter pattern.

Looking into the 2nd week of November, we are seeing some agreement on the ensemble mean runs that the higher heights could shift towards Alaska with lower heights underneath into the West Coast. A pattern that could make it easier to push storms into CA.

week 2

With the trough well off the coast and high pressure still wanting to hang around CA, we will need stronger storms or a stronger jet stream to take aim at the West Coast to help push in storms. Some model runs do shower a stronger jet stream coming off of Asia the 2nd week of November and a more zonal flow eastward towards the West Coast.

jet stream

So we will keep an eye on the 2nd week of November to see if these are signs that storms could start to push into northern CA. The GFS ensemble mean run is showing increasing precipitation chances in northern CA beyond November 7th.

gfs

The Canadian ensemble mean run is even wetter...

canadian

No guarantees. These are an average of dozens of runs both drier and wetter, and the operational model runs are not picking up on any significant storms yet. But it is the only sign of a pattern change right now so we will keep watching as we get closer.

There aren't a whole lot of other indicators right now that point towards a wetter pattern. We have ENSO neutral conditions and the MJO is in the circle of death. Seasonally as the jet stream strengthens and shifts we see better chances for storms as we get to mid-November and beyond.

The good news is that we have good snowmaking conditions this week and ski resorts have started opening. Remember, even good years like last year can start dry. Last year we saw no snow in September and October, and then below-average snowfall in November and December. We already have more snow than this time last year.

Stay tuned...BA 

Announcements

Mt. Rose is open weekends (Fri-Sun) currently. We are waiting for midweek and additional ski resort openings.

About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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