Tahoe Daily Snow

Record Cold?...

Summary

- Sunny and cool weather expected Thursday and Friday. Highs in the 50s. - Sunny and milder weather expected this weekend into next week. Highs in the 60s at lake level and 50s in the upper elevations. - The long-range forecast models suggest a chance for a storm or two beyond the 10th of the month.

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Short Term Forecast

The last 4 days we have seen cold dry air and some winds that have increased fire danger in CA. But the cold dry air in the mountains has meant great snowmaking conditions for the ski resorts. Many of the ski resorts started making snow this week.

Sugar Bowl had to deal with power shut-offs this week, but they are now making snow as well!

sb

The heart of the cold air mass has been over the Rockies where they have also been seeing quite a bit of snowfall. Unfortunately, the cold front have been dry for Tahoe this month, but it has been cold. Truckee is currently running 4.7 degrees below average for the month of October! 

Early Thursday morning the forecast for Reno is 16 degrees which would break the record low for October set back in 1975. Peter Sinks Utah dropped to -43.6 degrees early Wednesday morning. That may be the coldest temperature ever recorded for October in the Continental U.S.

cold

This cold dry air will moderate somewhat as we go into the weekend and next week as high pressure builds off the Pacific NW coast.

ridge

That will bring high temperatures up into the low 60s at lake level and 50s on the mountains. Overnight lows will drop into the 20s in the lower elevations. Inversions may bring marginal snowmaking temperatures above 8,000 feet where temperatures could be near to just above freezing, but the air will still be dry.

Extended Forecast

Not much has changed since the last post. The long-range forecast models continue to suggest that the strongest area of high-pressure shifts north towards Alaska the 2nd week of November, with lower heights underneath into the West Coast.

trough

The long-range ensemble runs continue to suggest that we could see storms return to the Pacific NW the 2nd week of November, and possibly push farther south into northern CA beyond the 10th. Here is a look at the GFS ensemble mean run through the 15th.

gfs ensemble mean

Some of the model runs still show a dry pattern through mid-month. But it is encouraging to see the pattern shift in the ensemble mean runs the 2nd week of November, and the ensemble mean runs showing increasing chances for precipitation beyond the 10th.

We will continue to watch as we get closer. In the meantime, hopefully the ski resorts can continue to pump out as much man-made snow as possible.

Stay tuned...BA

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