It's a windy Wednesday in the Tahoe Basin as a cold front is moving through the region. That will bring colder temperatures by afternoon and into Thanksgiving Day.

Looking at the radar this morning there is a light band of snow breaking out over the southern Cascades near Mt. Lassen as the cold front moves down from the north.

Many of you likely know this, but I see reports during snowstorms of it snowing at "Mt. Lassen in the Sierra". Mt. Lassen is at the southern end of the Cascade Mountain Range.

We could see a few flakes over the mountains around midday into the early afternoon with the passage of the front. Not expecting more than a dusting of snow if we see any snow showers. Here is a look at the very meager precipitation forecast.

The winds are gusting to 50+ mph over the ridgetops this morning and will come down some later this afternoon behind the front. Temperatures near 40 degrees at lake level falling this afternoon. Temperatures dropping into the teens Wednesday night for better snowmaking conditions.

A Cold Thanksgiving:

For Thanksgiving Day we will see cold temperatures with highs barely above freezing at lake level and in the 20s on the upper mountains. Then add in a cold east wind that could gust up to 50+ mph over the ridges.

That will make it feel even colder with the wind chills. If you plan to be outside or to go skiing definitely be layered up for the cold. With the east winds, we could see a few clouds form over the mountains on the east side of the lake from the upslope flow. There is also a chance to see a few flakes falling from those clouds. The ski resorts will be thankful for 24-hour snowmaking.

The Weekend:

The winds die down on Friday and high pressure builds over the region. Highs warming into the 40s and then near 50 degrees at lake level Sat-Sun and 40s for the mountains. Expecting mostly sunny skies through the weekend and beautiful weather for skiing. 

Tuesday was beautiful as well with no wind and sunny skies for Opening Day at Squaw Valley. I got out there for my first turns of the season on the fresh groomers.

Monday System:

The final trough in the series is forecast to move through the West Coast Monday. It will encounter high pressure trying to build over the West. The latest model runs show a splitting system, but that may allow the southern piece to push a bit farther south into northern CA Monday-Monday night as the last few runs of the European and GFS forecast models have been suggesting.

We will be keeping an eye on this system through the weekend to see if it could bring us some light snow before we head into a drier pattern. There will be some colder air at the center of the low so snow levels would fall with this system as it moves inland. 

As the teleconnection patterns flip to mostly all dry signals for the first week of December, we should see high pressure build in over the West Coast blocking storms.

That could last into the 2nd week of December. The 2-week precipitation forecasts on the ensemble mean runs of the models show the storm track mainly into British Columbia and the southern edge into the Pacific NW. The chances for light precip in northern CA come from the Monday system.

This is a drier pattern for most of the Western U.S. setting up for the beginning of December. The teleconnection patterns are forecast to start shifting again around mid-December, with most long-range models suggesting we flip back into a negative PNA pattern during the 3rd week of December.

That doesn't mean we won't see any storms before then. Some model runs try to push a storm in around the 10th of December. It just means the pattern is not set up for a series of storms, and the storms will have a harder time maintaining their strength as they try to push into the West Coast. Many times they split or fall apart.

We will keep an eye on the forecast for any storms that could push into northern CA. But we want to pattern to shift to a pattern that will open the storm door. Looking at the European weeklies, the GFS extended range, and the CFS climate models, they all suggest the pattern shift during the 3rd week of December. Here is a look at the CFS showing below average precip week 3 and then above-average week 4.

As Dr. Howard always says, that's not a forecast just guidance. The models always struggle beyond a week. We watch for agreement and consistency on a pattern change during a certain period in the long-range, and that is what we are seeing right now. Here is a look at the GFS extended range model forecast for total precip through the end of December.

Some of the control runs are even wetter for northern CA. This just shows that the long-range models are suggesting the storm track shifts south into northern CA again during the 2nd half of December. It's only November, so we have a ways to go to get that forecast to verify.

Many seasons we don't see much snow until at least Christmas week. We have already seen some storms here in November. Maybe a better round of storms will pile up some snow in time for Christmas week? 

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. As always, we are thankful for all of our snow obsessed readers. Have a Happy Thanksgiving. Not a great year but always plenty to be thankful for.

New episodes of The Flakes Podcast will be out every Monday for the rest of the season. Enjoy!