The boring weather continues this week. We have mostly sunny skies for Monday into Tuesday with highs in the 40s to near 50 degrees at lake level. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 40+ mph Monday and then lighter on Tuesday.

Wednesday:

An area of low pressure spins south off of the CA coast Tuesday into Wednesday and is forecast to move inland over southern CA by Wednesday afternoon. 

We could see light snow showers over the mountains as far north as Mammoth Mountain or even Dodge Ridge. A few model runs try to bring a few showers north to the Tahoe Basin, but right now just expecting a few clouds through the afternoon. Highs still in the 40s with lighter winds. Here is a look at the WPC model forecast for total precip with this system.

Thursday-Friday:

Another break Thursday into Friday with mostly sunny skies. Highs in the 40s on the mountains to around 50 degrees at lake level. Ridgetop winds increasing Friday ahead of the next system with gusts from the south up to 60+ mph.

Friday Night - Saturday System:

After 2 weeks of dry weather, it looks like we will finally see some light precipitation this weekend. The forecast models are not in agreement yet on the timing with the GFS model pushing light rain/snow into the Sierra Friday night and other models like the European model holding off until Saturday.

This trough is going to have a hard time pushing in Friday and will weaken as it encounters high pressure over the West.

What can happen when these troughs slow as they encounter high pressure and dig south, is that they can take on a negative tilt with the flow becoming southerly instead of southwesterly. We are seeing this on several models including the European.

This system also won't have a deep moisture tap with limited moisture and could be weakening as it moves in. The southerly flow is parallel to the mountains instead of perpendicular which means less orographic enhancement from the mountains and less forcing leading to more shadowing of precip from the crest east across the lake. Here is a look at the WPC's blended model for total precipitation through Saturday night.

You can see the precipitation is mainly in the foothills up to the crest and dry on the east side of the lake. Several of the models show this with this system. The Canadian model is currently the driest with less than 1 tenth of an inch of precip along the crest on the high end. The GFS & GFS v16 as well as some European & ensemble model runs are wetter with up to 9 tenths of an inch along the crest.

Cold air moves in Friday night with this system with snow level dropping below lake level near the start and maybe bottoming out around 5000 ft. Saturday. So we should see all snow on the mountains. The best chance to see accumulating snow looks to be west of the lake along the crest. I'd lean to the lower end of teh forecast for now.

It will be colder Saturday with highs in the 30s on the mountains to low 40s at lake level. Then mostly sunny for Sunday with highs in the 30s on the upper mountains and 40s at lake level.

Once the troughing becomes established over the West & West Coast this weekend it may stick around through mid-month.

That could allow additional systems to drop south into the trough and into CA. The next system could be a closed low that moves slowly south down the CA coast early next week, Mon-Wed.

We will be watching this system closely. If it tracks slow enough and close enough to the coast, it could direct moisture into the Sierra for 2-3 days with some decent snowfall on the mountains. If it tracks too fast or too far off of the coast we would get lighter amounts. 

Fantasy Range:

We could see additional systems drop down from the north through mid-month. Overall not expecting any strong systems right now in this pattern. The best chance for significant snowfall would be slow-moving systems. The long-range ensemble mean models are in decent agreement that we could see near to above-average precipitation from the 5th through mid-month.

The long-range models have been pretty consistent over the past week in showing the troughing over the West through most of the month of March. Here is the average height forecast on the GFS Extended model for the month of March.

Hopefully, that will mean additional troughs and systems digging south down the West Coast through the end of March, with no long-term dry spells like we are in now... The MJO looks like it could finally be heading towards phases 2-3 during the 2nd half of March, maybe lending some support to the West Coast trough pattern being forecast and helping to keep a cool & active pattern going through the end of March.

There are some positive signs in the pattern for the month of March starting Friday night and beyond. Nothing guarantees big storms, but at this point, we will take several inches at a time as long as it remains active. Let's hope we can get a few bigger storms this month. We will be tracking it closely all month with you. 

There seem to be 3 groups of people right now:

1) People who are over winter and ready to move on to Spring and Summer activities.

2) People who want to be excited about more snow and the prospect of more powder days, but are burned out by the rough season and insane crowds on the few powder days we have had.

3) Diehards who are eternal optimists and will be on the mountains for every last fresh track possible this season. (that's me still)

There is one other group, those who are traveling into town for a vacation in March and are coming whether we get snow or not and are hoping for fresh snow but will have fun either way.

March is always an interesting month for weather, we'll see what happens...

Stay tuned...BA

Thank you to those who have been submitted backcountry locations for us to add to our forecast maps. You can now see the updated map locations that have been added!

https://opensnow.com/map/satellite/forecast-radar/@39.0791,-120.0486,7.8292z/

You can click on each location to see their page that has the detailed daily and hourly forecast information!

https://opensnow.com/location/carsonpass

Please continue to submit more GPS locations for us to add to the maps!

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScD_wYFMpyWlsgCrEjIOtHBWPBb4U0oJjs-I7-EcKBlV-93Zw/viewform