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Tahoe Daily Snow

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Breezy & Boring...

Summary

We have a dry pattern through the weekend. We will cool down slightly Saturday. Gusty winds possible at times through the period. There is a minimal chance for light precipitation midweek. Overall we should see dry weather continue with the next storm moving in the weekend of the 6th.

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Short Term Forecast

Not much to talk about this morning. The forecast models have come into fairly good agreement on the pattern for this week, with a few minor differences. Overall the dry pattern continues. We saw ridgetop winds to 70+ mph on Friday which are much lighter and turning northerly this morning, with blue skies.

The Weekend:

A cold front moved through Friday and we have some colder air in place for Saturday. Highs only the 30s and 20 for higher elevation above 8500 feet. The winds are expected to pick back up again gusting 40-50+ mph by this afternoon, and possibly stronger Saturday night.

Sunday the mostly sunny skies continue with highs warming into the 40s at lake level and staying in the 30s on the upper mountains. The winds drop off through the day with fairly light breezes expected.

Monday - Friday:

The dry pattern with mostly sunny skies may continue through Friday. Highs warming into the 40s on the upper mountains to near 50 degrees at lake level by midweek.

We do have a system approaching the West Coast that we have been tracking all week. The forecast models are in good agreement that the system splits with a closed cut-off low drifting slowly south off of the CA coast Monday - Tuesday.

cut-off low

If you live on the coast you can wave to it as it passes by...

Most of the forecast models bring the low inland Wednesday over far southern CA well to our south keeping us dry. The GFS model shows a track slightly closer to the coast and coming inland slightly farther north Tue-Wed. That is what is causing a 0-1 inch snowfall forecast on the mountain pages from Sierra at Tahoe south. But the GFS model is the outlier so I would expect us to stay dry all week through Friday.

Extended Forecast

We are still watching for a trough to dig south into the West Coast next weekend, with the first system moving into CA next Saturday, and possibly lingering into Sunday.

saturday storm

After this dry period seeing a storm in the forecast looks exciting, but there is not much about this system to get overly excited about. It doesn't have any deep moisture feed. The Canadian model is the most aggressive with it. The European model (above) has it taking on a negative tilt which is not good for heavy precipitation. The GFS is farther north brushing us with lighter precipitation, and the new GFS v16 misses us completely.

We will be watching the trends all week for this system. I'm hoping the Canadian model is right and we can get at least several inches of fresh snow as we could use a refresh on the slopes. The sun angle is getting higher and lower south-facing areas are going to start melting faster this week. Here is a look at the European ensemble mean forecast for total precipitation through next weekend.

euro precip

Fantasy Range:

Going through the 2nd week of March the long-range models continue to a trough over the West Coast.

trough long range

We could continue to see additional systems diving into the trough into CA. The next system may move in early the week of the 8th...

week of the 7th

...with additional systems behind that. The ensembles continue to show increased precipitation through the 2nd week of March. Here is a look at the European ensemble mean model (above) updated for total precipitation through the 2nd week fo March. These ensemble mean models average together dozens of ensemble member model runs.

euro long range

The issue with each system is that they may each be lacking deep moisture and we may struggle with their track if we see some closed or cut-off lows form. No signs of any strong storms in the long-range, but a more active pattern starting next weekend could bring several systems that continue to refresh the slopes if the current forecast holds...

The long-range models continue to suggest that the mean trough/ridge pattern could keep a trough over the West Coast through most of the month of March.

trough thru March

That would continue to suggest that the door stays open to systems tracking into CA with no extended dry periods. But it doesn't guarantee we see any big storms. We will have to track each system to see if we could get any good dumps during the month of March...

Stay tuned...BA

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