We have a dry pattern through the weekend. We will cool down slightly Saturday. Gusty winds possible at times through the period. There is a minimal chance for light precipitation midweek. Overall we should see dry weather continue with the next storm moving in the weekend of the 6th.
Midweek 4 Pack
Ski or ride at Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows Monday-Friday for less than $98/day with the Midweek 4 Pack. You can expect fewer people, less traffic, and less stress, all for less money. Visit SquawAlpine.com to learn more.
Short Term Forecast
Not much to talk about this morning. The forecast models have come into fairly good agreement on the pattern for this week, with a few minor differences. Overall the dry pattern continues. We saw ridgetop winds to 70+ mph on Friday which are much lighter and turning northerly this morning, with blue skies.
A cold front moved through Friday and we have some colder air in place for Saturday. Highs only the 30s and 20 for higher elevation above 8500 feet. The winds are expected to pick back up again gusting 40-50+ mph by this afternoon, and possibly stronger Saturday night.
Sunday the mostly sunny skies continue with highs warming into the 40s at lake level and staying in the 30s on the upper mountains. The winds drop off through the day with fairly light breezes expected.
Monday - Friday:
The dry pattern with mostly sunny skies may continue through Friday. Highs warming into the 40s on the upper mountains to near 50 degrees at lake level by midweek.
We do have a system approaching the West Coast that we have been tracking all week. The forecast models are in good agreement that the system splits with a closed cut-off low drifting slowly south off of the CA coast Monday - Tuesday.
If you live on the coast you can wave to it as it passes by...
Most of the forecast models bring the low inland Wednesday over far southern CA well to our south keeping us dry. The GFS model shows a track slightly closer to the coast and coming inland slightly farther north Tue-Wed. That is what is causing a 0-1 inch snowfall forecast on the mountain pages from Sierra at Tahoe south. But the GFS model is the outlier so I would expect us to stay dry all week through Friday.
We are still watching for a trough to dig south into the West Coast next weekend, with the first system moving into CA next Saturday, and possibly lingering into Sunday.
After this dry period seeing a storm in the forecast looks exciting, but there is not much about this system to get overly excited about. It doesn't have any deep moisture feed. The Canadian model is the most aggressive with it. The European model (above) has it taking on a negative tilt which is not good for heavy precipitation. The GFS is farther north brushing us with lighter precipitation, and the new GFS v16 misses us completely.
We will be watching the trends all week for this system. I'm hoping the Canadian model is right and we can get at least several inches of fresh snow as we could use a refresh on the slopes. The sun angle is getting higher and lower south-facing areas are going to start melting faster this week. Here is a look at the European ensemble mean forecast for total precipitation through next weekend.
Going through the 2nd week of March the long-range models continue to a trough over the West Coast.
We could continue to see additional systems diving into the trough into CA. The next system may move in early the week of the 8th...
...with additional systems behind that. The ensembles continue to show increased precipitation through the 2nd week of March. Here is a look at the European ensemble mean model (above) updated for total precipitation through the 2nd week fo March. These ensemble mean models average together dozens of ensemble member model runs.
The issue with each system is that they may each be lacking deep moisture and we may struggle with their track if we see some closed or cut-off lows form. No signs of any strong storms in the long-range, but a more active pattern starting next weekend could bring several systems that continue to refresh the slopes if the current forecast holds...
The long-range models continue to suggest that the mean trough/ridge pattern could keep a trough over the West Coast through most of the month of March.
That would continue to suggest that the door stays open to systems tracking into CA with no extended dry periods. But it doesn't guarantee we see any big storms. We will have to track each system to see if we could get any good dumps during the month of March...
On this week's episode of The Flakes Podcast, we talk to Evan Thayer about the amazing skiing after Interlodge at Alta, and having respect for ski patrol. Plus we go through the 5-day snowfall reports & forecasts for each ski state!
Never miss another powder day with All-Access.
- Unlimited Daily Snows
- 10-Day Snow Forecasts
- Hourly Forecasts
- Advanced Map Overlays
- Daily Snow Email Delivery
- OpenSummit All-Access
"It is well worth the All-Access upgrade considering you get access to a 10-day HIGHLY accurate forecast. It’s a small price to pay for finding fresh powder."
— App Review