It's been cold the last few days, especially in the morning. A good feeling if you love fall and signs that winter is just around the corner.

High pressure is going to be building over CA through Saturday with a warming trend.

The weather will be beautiful with light winds and sunny skies. Highs warming into the 50s at lake level Thursday and then into the 60s for Friday and Saturday:

Sunday Cold Front:

The nice weather will be short-lived as another cool trough moves in Sunday.

Sunday should see mostly sunny skies but with cooler air and increasing winds. Highs drop back into the 50s and the winds increase through the day and into the evening. Ridgetop winds increasing to 100+ mph by Sunday evening and to 40+ mph from the southwest at lake level.

The cold front sweeps through Sunday night with some light precipitation for northern CA. The question is whether or not it reaches the Tahoe Basin. 

The latest forecast model runs suggest we could get brushed with snow showers overnight. Maybe a dusting of snow on the mountains with snow levels dropping to lake level behind the front early Monday morning. Here is a look at the WPC's blended model for total precip Sunday night.

It appears that through most of next week, Mon-Fri, that a deep trough will be sitting off the West Coast with a ridge over the Rockies.

Systems spinning up in the trough will have a good moisture tap and will direct quite a bit of moisture into Canada and NW Washington, but the trough may be stuck in that position through Friday. Any systems trying to push farther east into CA are forecast to split and fall apart.

Here is a look at the total precipitation forecast on the European model through next Friday the 22nd.

We may just see mostly sunny skies through the week with highs in the 50s, and maybe a few clouds at times. The winds will come down Monday but could pick up if any systems get closer later in the week. We will keep a close eye on the forecast with the stronger storms just off the coast all week. 

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models continue to show the trough progressing farther east over the West Coast the weekend of the 23rd into the week of the 25th. 

That would open the door to the storms being able to push into northern CA. These systems may continue to have a decent moisture feed with some small ARs attached through the last week of October.

We will be watching closely to see if we could see some wetter systems move through during this period. Most of the long-range models agree we could see a wet period. 

Here is a look at both the GFS and European ensemble mean models for total precipitation through the 29th. The mean models take an average of dozens of ensemble member model runs. 

It wouldn't be the first time we had enough snow to ski on in the backcountry by Halloween. We will keep you posted! Here is a look at the historical snowfall for October, our 50 year average at the Snow Lab near Donner Summit (6883') is 10 inches.

The Upcoming Season:

We are continuing to work on the final winter guestimate we usually put out for Tahoe before the end of October. Still watching the changes in the sea surface temps. More cooling off the West Coast would be helpful like it was back during the 10/11 season, but temps are similar to 2013 which saw the warm blob shift closer to the West Coast during the winter which was not helpful. So we need to keep watching to see if the cooling will continue.

I know that some people are excited about the QBO being in the negative phase. It can lead to a weaker AO, more cold outbreaks over North America, and more blocking in the higher lats that can at times lead to a wet pattern for CA, but it's a gamble and you may have better odds playing roulette. Historically -QBO seasons average below average snowfall for the northern Sierra. Think back to the 17/18 season...

11/12 was the last weak La Nina with a -QBO and also had a cold PDO with cooler water off the coast. That season we saw 80% of average snowfall. That is kind of where our research is leaning right now. Below average again this season but not as dry as last season. More chances for wet periods. But I'll get into that more in the final forecast. 

Here is a look at all La Nina seasons by month for snowfall, compared to weak La Ninas. Despite popular belief that weak La Ninas are wetter for northern CA, we actually average less snowfall than in all La Ninas combined. 

More to come...

Stay tuned...BA

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