It's nice to sit and look at the weather this afternoon after a crazy morning. Believe it or not, we had our 3rd trespasser/attempted break-in at our property in the last 2 years! Had to deal with that and then split and stack wood with the leftover daylight before the busy work week ahead that will eventually have much colder weather.

I figured you wouldn't mind with most ski resorts not open outside of 2 with two very small trails at the bottom. That and not a lot of snow in the forecast over the next week outside of a small system Thursday. Pretty boring around Tahoe right now with the dirt on the trails due to warm nights and a lack of storms over the past month. I'll be on the Today Show Monday morning to chat with them about the big swing from October to November.

You would also probably rather not hear about the one system for Thursday looking a bit weaker and drier as we get closer. But now that the crazy day is winding down and I can breathe I'm happy to be looking at the weather and hanging out with you, unless you are watching football or hanging out with family and not paying attention to the boring weather.

Sunday Night:

Today should be the last mild day in the 50s for at least a little while. We may still have to deal with some mild temps tonight. But things are starting to change ahead of a dry system Monday.

Monday System:

A cold front moving through from the north Monday afternoon will bring us some clouds, cooler air, maybe a few showers, and some gusty winds. West winds could be gusting to 60+ mph over the ridgetops by midday, but that should affect most of you since no one in the Tahoe Region is open for skiing up top yet.

The latest model runs are not completely dry. They do show a few showers popping up Monday afternoon/evening. The heaviest showers should stay to the south.

Still only expecting up to a tenth of an inch of total precipitation on the high end, and snow levels may stay above 8000 ft. until after most of the showers end. So maybe enough precip for a coating of snow on the peaks in a few places.

The good news is that cooler air begins to move in. Highs only in the 40s for Monday into Tuesday, with lows in the 20s at night. We should start to see better mixing and the inversions finally residing at night. The upper mountains should start to be colder than the bases at night for better snowmaking conditions. Tuesday we will see cool northeast breezes.

Wednesday Night - Thursday System:

Wednesday we should see some sun but with gusty winds increasing ahead of the next cold trough moving down from the north. West winds gusting up to 70+ mph from the west by late morning through the afternoon. Highs are still in the 40s for Wednesday. 

The latest model runs have sped up the arrival of the front and light snow showers to Wednesday night now, with snow showers possible through the day on Thursday. Snow levels look to start around lake level and then fall below 5000 ft. Thursday. It should be much colder with highs only in the 30s at lake level and 20s for the mountains Thursday with winds coming down.

We have been tracking this system every day for the last week and we have been talking about the drier north to south track over land similar to the Monday system. The difference with this system is that it could tap into some additional moisture from off of the Pacific as the front moves through CA, but we haven't been sure how much moisture and when it could be drawn in.

The forecast models had been showing the heaviest precipitation chances being to our south, and that trend continues. The latest model runs have been pulling back some with the total precipitation forecast through Thursday with less moisture being drawn in as the front moves through around 3-7 tenths in total around the region.

The good news is this is a cold storm with mainly all snow on the mountains down to lake level. That will help with the fluff factor and these fronts can sometimes have stronger frontogenesis than the models are showing. But overall this system still looks like inches not feet. The latest estimate is for 3-9 inches on the mountains and up to a few inches for lake level. 

I'll have the detailed snowfall graph up for the ski resorts in Monday's post, even though most are still closed. The best news with this storm will be the very cold air. Highs likely in the 30s through next weekend and lows in the teens on the mountains for much better snowmaking, and maybe around the clock Friday and into the weekend for the higher elevations.

It will be interesting to see how much snow can be made on top of the natural snow Thursday into Friday and if any other mountains will be able to open some terrain in time for next weekend. But terrain expansion should continue through the weekend!

Not too many changes to the extended forecast. We are still expecting a deeper trough to form near the West Coast going into the week of the 13th.

We should stay cold and dry through next weekend with highs in the 30s to near 40 at lake level and 30s for the mountains, even 20s for the highest elevations.

The issue if a trough is stagnant and too deep and a bit too far West is that storms can spin up into the base of the trough and sit off the coast for a while before moving inland. We will have to watch for that next week as the GFS is now suggesting the next storm may not move inland until the 15th or 16th. The European model is also slower but is progressing the next storm inland by the 14th.

Either way, these storms are expected to be wetter and fairly cold if the current pattern forecast holds. So we will continue to keep an eye on it. The long-range models continue to show a wetter pattern into the 3rd week of December.

For now, we have some cooler nights starting Monday, a little fresh snow possible by Thursday, and much colder for much better snowmaking Friday through the 13th, even though the pattern remains fairly dry until then. Let's hope for a much stormier period by mid-month!

Stay tuned...BA