It's Monday morning and a week where we will celebrate a change in the weather pattern after 4 weeks of mild and dry weather. Even though we don't have any big storms coming this week, we will see colder air for much better snowmaking conditions and the chance for a little natural snow for the mountains.

Monday System:

Mostly cloudy for Monday with increasing ridgetop winds. Gusts up to 60+ mph from the west by afternoon. Highs in the 40s up to maybe around 50 degrees for the lowest elevations near lake level. A few showers could pop up by midday through the afternoon with snow levels above 8000 ft.

Overnight the forecast models trended a bit wetter with some moisture moving in Monday evening. You can see in the forecast radar above that the showers move through between 1 PM and midnight.

Some of the higher resolution models last night flipped much wetter after being dry. Our forecast radar pulls from the shorter-range hi-res models and I am obsessed with it since we launched it. The OpenSnow forecast team around the U.S. is always chatting about the weather. Last night when I saw the flip I sent this text to our Southern CA & Mammoth forecaster Mikhail Korotkin.

Haha, but it was only a brief blip and the latest runs have pulled back again this morning. But they aren't completely dry. The average of the models this morning is up to 2 tenths of an inch. Still really low but more than nothing. Most of the precipitation is expected south of the lake.

Snow levels could fall to around 7500 ft. or just below Monday night. So some of the showers will be all snow on the upper mountains. With the slightly wetter forecast, I decided to dust off the snowfall calculator and ski resort snowfall forecast table. Here is the first and final forecast for this storm.

The best chance of seeing the high end will be south of the lake for Sierra, Kirkwood, and south to Mammoth.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

We see a slight cooldown for Tuesday into Wednesday but not that cold. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Expecting sunny skies for Tuesday with northeast breezes. Wednesday we could see increasing clouds with ridgetop winds increasing to 80+ mph from the west.

Some of the latest forecast model runs suggest a few snow showers could sneak in later in the afternoon ahead of the next system. As the cold trough moves south into the region we are expecting snow showers to increase Wednesday night and they could last into Thursday evening before ending.

The strong winds drop-off for Thursday and it will be much colder. Highs near freezing at lake level and 20s for the upper mountains. It will be cold and snow showery, but we aren't expecting heavy snow. Snow levels drop below lake level at the start Wednesday evening down to 4000 ft. Thursday and close to 2000 ft. by the end Thursday evening.

Not much change from Sunday's post on the total precipitation and snowfall forecasts. The latest model runs have a range of 0.5 - 1.0 inches west of the lake along the crest and 0.25 - 0.6 inches on the east side of the lake. Here is a look at the WPC's total precipitation forecast for Monday through Thursday.

The cold air will aid in the fluff factor with 12:1 snow:water ratios or higher on the mountains Thursday. The total model average for precipitation is around 7 tenths of an inch on the high end along the crest. With a little help from the cold air, the snowfall forecast remains at 3-9 inches for the mountains and 1-3 inches for lake level.

To start building a base we don't need fluffy powdery snow. We need feet of base building snow. But the good news is that much colder air through Friday should allow for round-the-clock snowmaking on the mountains starting Wednesday night. Overnight lows in the teens.

We should see sunny skies Friday even though it's cold with highs in the 30s at lake level and 20s on the mountains. Then continued dry weather and slightly warmer for the weekend but still cold. Highs near 40 degrees at lake level and 30s on the mountains. Overnight snowmaking will continue.

Next Week:

The long-range models are still showing a deep trough over the West Coast by early next week.

A stronger storm is forecast to spin up in the trough off the CA by next Monday. Ahead of the storm, we may see southerly flow which will limit moisture from pushing east into the Sierra. We could see moisture stream into northern CA by next Monday but not progress into our region.

At some point Tuesday - Wednesday the storm should shift inland with rain and snow pushing into the Sierra. We will continue to watch the trends as we get closer.

We could see another system move in next Thursday the 16th. The pattern could remain active through the 3rd week of December. The long-range models continue to show a wetter pattern through this period.

I sat down this morning with the Today Show to talk about the big start in October but then the warm and dry November leading to a delayed opening. Of course, the 10 min conversation was cut down to 10 seconds using the 1 sentence they wanted for the story, lol. But I appreciated the opportunity!

The good news is that the pattern is changing this week and things are looking up as we move forward. Let's hope for lots of good snowmaking going forward as well as progressively wetter systems.

Stay tuned...BA