The weak system overnight performed pretty much as we expected. We saw showers move through for several hours with high snow levels. Snow levels mainly stayed above 7500-8000 ft.

Looking SNOTEL sensors this morning they are showing only 1-2 tenths of an inch of precipitation overnight on the north side of the lake, and up to 4-5 tenths on the south side. We were expecting the highest amounts south of the lake.

Looking at the webcams it looks like a dusting to an inch of snow fell above 8000 ft. around the lake and up to 2-3 inches above 9000 ft. The Heavenly stake cam at 9k (below) is showing 2 inches of new snow this morning, Mt Rose is reporting 2", and Kirkwood 3" up top.

All in all pretty much what we expected out of this weak system. The clouds did hang around into this morning which prevented cooling overnight, so temperatures on the mountains didn't break below or much below freezing for snowmaking.

Tuesday:

We have some clouds and fog this morning around the region. That will eventually clear. We have a cooler day with northeast breezes. Highs in the 40s at lake level and 30s for upper mountains. Tuesday night with the clear skies we should drop into the 20s on the mountains so that they can finally get the snowmaking guns and blowers fired up finally.

Wednesday - Thursday Storm:

Wednesday may start sunny and cool, similar to Tuesday afternoon. But increasing clouds and winds going into the afternoon. West winds gusting up to 60 mph over the ridgetops. Highs in the 40s and 30s. We could see some scattered snow showers break out later in the day as the next system moves in. Snow levels may initially start up around 7000 ft.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning the cold front moves through bringing a better chance for some steadier snow showers. Snow levels drop below lake level during the evening. This system will try to pull in some moisture from off of the ocean but overall it continues to trend slightly drier.

Behind the front Thursday, we could see some snow showers through the morning but diminishing in the afternoon before ending. Much colder behind the front with highs only near freezing at lake level and 20s on the mountains. Winds diminishing but breezy NW winds on the mountains.

Total precipitation amounts with this system have trended down slightly over the past 24 hours. The range among the forecast models this morning is 0.4 - 0.7 inches on the high end, with an average of 0.6 inches which is down a tenth from yesterday. We are still expecting slightly more precip to the south of the Tahoe region. 

Snow levels drop down to or just below 5000 ft. Thursday. We have snow:water ratios of 12:1 or better on the upper mountains for some lighter density snow. That will help to fluff the snowfall totals slightly, but overall a small storm. Here is the updated snowfall forecast.

Farther south near Bear Valley & Dodge Ridge they could see some of the highest totals with this system. Maybe up to the high end of the 9k forecast, or may an inch or two over that if the models are right with the heaviest precip streaming into that area.

Friday - Saturday:

It stays cold Friday but the sun comes out. Highs are still around freezing at lake level and 20s on the mountains. Overnight lows in the teens. We should see snowmaking around-the-clock Wednesday night through Friday night. 

Saturday looks a few degrees warmer but still cold. Highs in the 30s at lake level and 20s for the higher elevations above 8500 ft. The upper mountains may be able to continue making snow during the day. Ridgetop winds increasing from the southwest Saturday afternoon with up to 60+ mph.

Snowmaking Aside:

A lot of people have been asking if the ski resorts will be able to open this upcoming weekend. It will be a close call. The natural snow Thursday won't help much with only several inches of fluffy snow. The snow-making at night should start Tuesday night. That gives them 4 nights before Saturday and maybe 2 around-the-clock days. Although that may be just enough to open a couple of trails, it may be too tight of a turn for some.

I talked to an executive at one of the bigger resorts last night and he said likely not this weekend, and they were aiming to get staffed up and ready to open for the weekend of the 17th-19th. We will see. Palisades Tahoe & Boreal are open with 2 small trails but should be able to expand that by the weekend. No one knows for sure how much snow can be made by the weekend, so watch the ski area social channels and stop asking for my psychic opinion, lol.

There is already a lot of hype around town from a few GFS model runs yesterday for big storms next week. Despite the pattern forecast being ripe for wet storms...

...I think everyone forgot very quickly how the GFS showed big storms 2 weeks ago that never happened. Based on that I was hesitant to jump on the hype train too quickly.

Over the past 24 hours, we have had some other forecast models jumping on board and continued consistency from the GFS model. It's always nice to have the European model onboard since historically it has been the most accurate model within the 1-week window.

This looks like a complicated but good setup possibly for big snowfall starting as early as Sunday. We could see the initial front moves through with snow Sunday into Sunday night, and a 2nd wave moving in Monday could tap into some deeper subtropical moisture.

Additional waves are possible through Tuesday and even out to Wednesday on some model runs as the center of low pressure spins down the coast. The latest model runs show snow levels staying below lake level. We are still 6 days out from the start and 8-9 days from the finish of this storm, so way too early to look at potential snowfall amounts, and to bet the farm.

Right now most forecast models that go out that far are showing several inches of total precipitation, so if the forecast holds we would see feet of snow. Continue those snow prayers and rituals...

I may start to give an idea of how much snow we could see starting Wednesday if the models continue to agree and to be consistent with the storm.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models suggest that the trough remains over the West through the 3rd week of December. The deterministic models suggest another storm is possible later next week, but some models keep it to our north.

The GFS model has lost its mind and continues storms every couple of days over the next 2 weeks bringing copious amounts of moisture.

I'm not buying into that insanity yet. We have the potential pattern for continued storms, but there is no way to know if they will track off the coast and pull in that much moisture, or if they will take a drier track. But overall the pattern doesn't look dry or boring for the next 1-2 weeks. If the GFS was right we would quickly go from zero to hero right before the holiday period.

The European Weeklies model is suggesting the EPO (eastern Pacific oscillation) could briefly flip negative (green line) starting around the 20th. 

That is a northeast Pacific ridge pattern that could nudge the trough east a bit over the Rockies.

We see this happen sometimes when the active phase of the MJO moves into the Western Pacific. I've been saying to keep an eye on this for a couple of weeks now. It could bring a drier storm track later in the 3rd week of December into the last week. But then we could flip back to a wetter pattern by the end of the month.

The PNA (Pacific North American) teleconnection pattern is forecast by all of the models to stay negative which is a Western/West Coast trough pattern. That is fighting in our favor so I don't think we go total dry at any point right now. 

Things are looking up for a flip to a colder and stormier pattern going forward. Now we just need to track each system for more details on how much snow each could bring. Let's get this winter started!

Stay tuned...BA

In this week's episode of The Flakes Podcast, Mike & BA talk about the Flip to Winter coming to the Western U.S. and much more...

We are also testing whether or not we want to release the unedited videos of us recording the show as well on YouTube each week. Lots of bloopers last night as we tried to dial in on using multiple tech platforms.