Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago November 17, 2022

Waiting For Winter's Return...

Summary

Thursday through Monday we are in a chilly and dry pattern. There's a chance for a very weak system Tuesday. Then warming through Thanksgiving. Storms may not return again until late month.

Short Term Forecast

No changes to the forecast this morning. We are stuck in a mainly dry pattern through at least the 26th it appears.

We are starting out the mornings with some inversions. It's 10 degrees in Truckee this morning and in the 30s above 8000 ft. That does limit snowmaking for the upper portion of the ski areas when we have inversions.

Thursday - Monday:

Mostly sunny through Monday during the day. Friday we still have a cold front moving through bringing in colder air into Saturday. Highs in the 40s at lake level Thursday dropping into the 30s for Friday into Saturday. Around 3 degrees colder for every 1000 ft. you go up in elevation. We could see gusty ridgetop winds from the east on Friday which will make it feel even colder.

Lighter winds and warming back into the 40s at lake level Sunday into Monday.

Weak System:

The forecast models are split this morning on whether or not a very weak system will move through northern CA on Tuesday. We'll continue to keep an eye on it. But precip amounts look very light even on the wettest models, and snow levels may stay above 8000 ft.

weak system

Extended Forecast

Wednesday through the end of Thanksgiving week, and into Saturday the 26th, high pressure is forecast to build over the West Coast.

ridge

That will keep us dry and we should warm even more by Thanksgiving Day into Friday the 25th. Highs warming into the 50s at lake level.

Fantasy Range:

By Sunday the 27th, the long-range models continue to suggest the pattern begins to shift, with a trough digging in over the West Coast through the week of the 28th.

trough

That shift has been consistent on the long-range models. That pattern would bring in colder air, and would also open the door to storms tracking south from the Gulf of Alaska into CA. The ensemble mean models continue to show the week of the 28th as a fairly active and wet week.

wet week

We'll continue to keep an eye on the trends. Hopefully, we can end November and start December on a snowy note. It will be nice when we can get this pattern change out of the fantasy range where they like to hide sometimes...

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. I'm posting every other day at times until we can get snowstorms back into the 1-week forecast window.

Ski Area Opening Dates:

  • Mammoth - Open
  • Boreal - Open
  • Mt. Rose - Open
  • Dodge Ridge - Open
  • China Peak - Open
  • Northstar - Open
  • Heavenly - Open
  • Kirkwood - Open
  • Palisades - Open
  • Sugar Bowl - 11/25
  • Bear Valley - 11/25
  • Sierra at Tahoe - 12/3 -  Welcome Back!!
  • Diamond Peak - 12/8
  • Tahoe Donner - 12/9
  • Homewood - 12/9

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To set your first "Custom Location", make sure that you are using the latest version of our iOS or Android apps (this works on our website, too!), then go to the Map tab, tap any spot on the map, and you're on the way to creating your first "Custom Location".

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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