Tahoe Daily Snow

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Thanksgiving in the Clear, Then A Change...

Summary

We are in an extended dry pattern that will become milder through Thanksgiving week. The pattern may begin to shift around Sunday the 27th with the chance for storms into early December.

Short Term Forecast

We are starting out Thanksgiving week and the forecast through the end of the week has not changed. The weather will remain quiet with temperatures warming through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the West.

ridge

High temperatures in the 40s to start the week and warm into the 50s at lake level by Thanksgiving Day into Friday. Around 3 degrees cooler for every 1,000 ft. you go up the mountain.

The dry weather with mostly sunny days could extend into Saturday, but we will be on the edge of a pattern change, so some models like the European try to bring in a weak system with rain showers.

weak system

We will keep an eye on that, but overall a nice week is expected with no weather-related travel issues expected through Saturday. The latest WPC blended model shows the light precipitation staying just to our NW through Saturday night.

wpc

Extended Forecast

The pattern change starting Sunday is still on track as the initial trough is forecast to dig into the West Coast.

trough

We could see some showers on Sunday and likely gusty winds on the mountains. So it may begin to feel stormy and cool down, but the snow levels look to start high during the day.

By Sunday night the long-range models continue to show a cold front associated with the trough and a colder low moving into the West Coast into next Monday the 28th.

wet storm

If you are planning to travel into the Sierra for Thanksgiving and to leave Sunday afternoon/evening, definitely keep an eye on the forecast as you may want to leave earlier if this storm forecast verifies.

It's still too early to look at the details but we will start to look at possible snowfall amounts by this Wednesday if the forecast holds. Snow levels will likely drop below lake level Sunday night into next Monday, so we could see a decent shot of snow for the ski areas with this storm if the trends continue.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models suggest additional troughs dig into the West through the end of next week (12/2) and possibly hanging around through the first 3-4 days of December.

troughiness

That could keep the storm door open to additional cold systems dropping into northern CA from the north/northwest through the period. The ensemble mean models continue to show a more active pattern starting Sunday through next week.

plumes

For now, we will enjoy the nice weather for Thanksgiving and the easy travel period through this Friday-Saturday. At least weather-wise not traffic-wise...

I'm excited that it's Thanksgiving week because that means we recorded the first episode of The Flakes Podcast for the 2022-23 season! See the announcement below...

Stay tuned...BA

PS - I took this survey about "Sliding With Respect" and it would be great if you could contribute your thoughts as well. The survey is being run by a group at Fort Lewis College in Durango. Take the survey slidewithrespect.com.

Ski Area Opening Dates:

      • Boreal - Open
      • Donner Ski Ranch - Open (weekends only)
      • Northstar - Open
      • Palisades - Open
      • Mt. Rose - Open
      • Heavenly - Open
      • Kirkwood - Open
      • Dodge Ridge - Open
      • China Peak - Open
      • Mammoth - Open
      • Sugar Bowl - 11/25
      • Bear Valley - 11/25
      • Sierra at Tahoe - 12/3 -  Welcome Back!!
      • Diamond Peak - 12/8
      • Tahoe Donner - 12/9
      • Homewood - 12/9

Announcements

We're Ba-ack!!!

On this week's episode, we follow Caleb's dream winter, look at the 5-Day Snowfall Reports for U.S. Ski Resorts, go through the 5-Day Snowfall Forecasts, discuss the Long Range Outlook, as well as a few laughs!

Be sure to join us for another season of good times chasing snow!

Available on most podcast platforms...