It's a b-e-a-utiful morning in the Tahoe basin after 1-3 feet of new snow fell on the mountains over the last 3 days! Here's a look at the sun coming up over the lake this morning from Homewood ski area.

The winds have dropped off and it will stay cold through Thursday keeping the fresh snow in good condition. The snow showers Monday hammered a bit harder than the models were showing, especially NW of the lake. We were looking for a final 1-6" on the mountains from east to west across the basin and reports are 3-11 inches!

Some of the ski areas are taking forever to report this season which is slowing down my posting of these forecasts, which I usually prefer to have out by 8 AM at the latest... Storm totals of 13-36 inches on the upper mountains. If you remember back to Saturday morning before the storm arrived, my final forecast was for 11-32 inches, so overall the 3-day storm didn't bring any big surprises.

Let's take a look at the forecaster scorecard and where the storm did perform differently than forecast for some mountains. I did my best to account for the higher snow levels south of the lake Saturday, but the 4 ski areas to the south are 3-8 inches below the forecast due to a bit more rain than expected. 

On the north side of the lake, most ski areas came in 1-5 inches over the forecast thanks to 4-5 inches more falling Monday than forecast for the final day of the storm. Overall an absolute variance of 2.8 inches. This was a very tricky storm to forecast with the snow levels starting high and the low slowly moving down the coast through Monday.

Officially the snow lab at 6894 ft. near Donner Summit is reporting 29" for the storm, 49 inches so far for December, and 105" so far this season. 55 of those inches fell in November which was 149% of the 52-year November average of 37".

We are already at 70% of the December average of 70 inches and at 90% of the Oct-Dec average of 117", and it's only December 6th! We have a big storm on the way this weekend which should push us above average for both figures. What a start to the season so far!

Tuesday - Thursday:

Tuesday through Thursday morning we are expecting mostly sunny skies and cold temperatures. Highs in the 30s at lake level and 20s on the upper mountains. lighter winds through Wednesday.

Thursday afternoon we are expecting increasing clouds and winds ahead of the next storm. Ridgetop winds from the southwest gusting up to 50-60+ mph by afternoon.

Thursday Night - Friday Storm:

The first storm moves in and weakens Thursday evening into Friday morning bringing a return of snow showers.

The forecast models are at odds over how much this system falls apart as it moves through the northern Sierra. Snow levels will be below 4000 ft. to start. and then rising to 4500-5500 ft. Friday. The winds may come down some Friday morning before increasing again to 50+ mph from the southwest over the ridges later Friday. Highs in the 20s on the upper mountains and 30s at lake level.

The latest model runs show a tenth up to a half of an inch of total precip through Friday afternoon from this first system. The total model average is around 4 tenths NW of the lake along the crest and less to the south. Here is the WPC's blended model forecast through Friday.

That would be enough for around 1-6 inches of snow on the mountains and a dusting up to 4 inches at lake level. The highest amounts NW of the lake.

Friday Night - Sunday Storm:

The next system diving into the West Coast is trending wetter as it taps much more Pacific moisture as compared to the first. The latest trend is also for it to last longer into Sunday.

We still have to watch the trends closely with this storm for precip amounts and snow levels based on the track down the coast. But right now the models show heavy snow returning Friday night through Saturday night with snow showers Sunday that clear out Sunday night.

Snow levels tapping out around 5800 ft. for the Tahoe Basin Saturday and then falling below 4000 ft. Saturday night into Sunday. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 100+ mph Saturday with the heavy snow. So Saturday will be a storm day with some lift closures likely. Also, travel is not advised from Friday night through Saturday night.

Total precip forecasts range from 2.6 - 4.5 inches along the crest. Most models peak out at 3 inches. The latest 12z GFS run had up to 4.5 inches in total by Sunday night! The total model average is around 3 inches. Here is a look at the WPC's blended model forecast through Sunday.

The wetter GFS run is pushing the snowfall forecast up a bit this morning, but the trends on the ensembles have been going up with each run the past 24 hours (darker line each run), so we are trending wetter overall.

Snow:liquid ratios would dip on Saturday as some warmer air tries to work in. But then Saturday night into Sunday they could jump to 13-18: or better on the mountains. Overall for the 8000 ft. snow ratio average, I'm getting around 15:1 for this storm multiplied by the 3-inch liquid average for the crest. That would give a high end of up to 45 inches for some peaks.

Lots of fine-tuning to do over the next few days as the storm approaches. If the track trends east a bit over land then the forecast will come down quite a bit. But for now, the trend is down the coast and tapping lots of Pacific moisture. 

Next week we could see a break on Monday the 12th. The next storm is possible next Tuesday - Wednesday the 13th-14th. With the trough remaining over the West Coast through mid-month, next week could remain active.

Fantasy Range:

Beyond mid-month, the long-range models are at odds. The GFS ensemble mean model runs try to keep the trough over the West through the 3rd week of December...

...while the European ensemble mean model shows a ridge building along the coast.

I keep hinting that I think the pattern could ridge up and become drier beyond mid-month. The European model supports that possibility. We'll have to continue to watch the trends. there is a battle going on in the pattern and on the models for December.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. We had a really fun time recording the latest Flakes Podcast episode last night. We talked with two of our forecasters that have been chasing snow around the west and we talked with Caleb and his wife as they travel across the country trying to ski most states this season.

I also sat down with pro skier Caite Zeliff Tuesday evening to talk about career and life. Check them out below!

Fresh Tracks!

On this week's show, we talk to two teams of Powder Chasers crisscrossing the country with some great stories so far this season! Plus the usual snowfall reports and forecasts for the upcoming week.

Available on most podcast platforms...

ALSO: I sat down Tuesday evening with Pro Freeride Skier and OpenSnow Athlete Caite Zeliff. We had a great conversation about her career and life journeys.