Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago January 22, 2023

Cold & Windy...

Summary

Cold and windy for Sunday into Monday. The cold/dry pattern lasts through the end of the week. We could see storms return around the 29th through the 1st week of February. The below-average temperatures are expected to continue through the long-range.

Short Term Forecast

A dry cold front is moving through Sunday morning.

cold front

Temperatures are in the 20s and will stay in the 20s for highs. As the low over the great basin drops south through the day and high pressure continues to build off the coast, the pressure gradient between them will tighten with the winds from the northeast increasing into Sunday night.

Northeast Winds & Cold Wind Chills:

We will have to see how strong the winds will get by the end of the day Sunday during ski resort operating hours. They could be gusting up to 60+ mph over the ridges by afternoon and even stronger Sunday night, and then still up to 60+ mph Monday morning before slowly coming down through the afternoon. Here is our wind gust forecast map for 9 AM Monday.

winds

Of note is that southwest of the basin near Kirkwood, where they get more effects from the downslope winds, the winds could be much stronger than mountains around the lake.

The strong winds and highs in the 20s Sunday into Monday will bring wind chills on the mountains that will make it feel much colder than temperatures in the 20s. The upper mountains where we see winds up to 60+ mph will see wind chills that will make it feel like single digits.

wind chills

Be prepared for gusty winds and cold skiing and outdoor activities from Sunday into Monday. The skies will be mostly sunny on both days making it look warmer out the window of your house than it actually is outside.

Tuesday - Friday:

The center of highest pressure will be sitting near the West Coast through the end of the week. 

ridge

That will block storms with mostly sunny skies expected each day through Friday as the dry pattern continues.

dry

But we will be on the east side of the high-pressure ridge off the coast which will continue a northerly flow of colder air into the region, and below-average temperatures.

below avg temps

Highs into the 30s starting Tuesday and maybe breaking 40 degrees at lake level by Friday.

Extended Forecast

By Saturday the 28th, the ridge off the coast begins to shift northwest away from the West Coast, and a cold trough may dig in from the north by next Sunday the 29th.

ridge shift

That could open the door to cold systems dropping down from the north starting next Sunday through the end of the month. The operational models suggest our next chance of a storm is next Sunday the 29th.

next sunday storm

The track of systems from the north is important. If they track down over land they are moisture starved with only light snow showers possible. If they track south near the coast, like the European model shows above for next Sunday, they can tap a bit more moisture. The GFS & European models suggest a storm next Sunday and possibly a 2nd on the 31st.

The operational models have become pretty wet for the last few days of the month. Looking at the ensemble mean models, which average more model runs, they show increasing precipitation from the 29th-31st.

total precip

We'll be watching these systems closely all week.

Fantasy Range:

Going into the first week of February the ridge is still forecast to shift a bit farther northwest away from the West Coast, but there are some discrepancies starting to show up among the long-range models. The European model has the ridge up near the Aleutian Islands and a broad trough over the West Coast.

trough

That would open the storm door to wetter storms tracking into CA. The European ensemble mean model continues to show above-average precipitation for the 1st week of February.

above avg precip

But, the GFS ensemble mean model now doesn't shift the ridge as far northwest away from the West Coast the first week of February, and doesn't have the trough digging as far south and west over the West Coast. The operational model is the same and is showing the storm track staying to our north into the Pacific NW through the first week of February.

The ensemble mean model does still show precipitation being near to very slightly above average for the first week of February. So we will have to watch the trends over the next week to see how active the 1st week of February could actually become. Either way, the cold looks to be with us for a while...

cold forever

Stay tuned...BA

About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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