Tahoe Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Tahoe Daily Snow

Light Snow Possible Friday Night - Saturday...


Mostly sunny through Thursday. Increasing clouds and winds Friday. Friday night into Saturday we could see some light snow. Mostly sunny Sunday into Monday. A cold/weak system for Tuesday into next Wednesday the 15th. Another break later next week. A slightly more active pattern is possible starting around the 18th.

Short Term Forecast

We have lighter winds allowing for inversions and fog Wednesday morning. Temperatures are in the teens at lake level and 30s above 8000 ft. After the fog burns off from the valleys we should see mostly sunny skies for all areas Wednesday and Thursday. Highs into the 40s with lighter winds.

Friday - Saturday System:

We will likely start the day with mostly sunny skies on Friday with increasing winds. Then increasing clouds later in the day. Highs into the 30s for the upper elevations and 40s at lake level. Winds from the southwest could be gusting up to 70+ mph by afternoon, likely affecting some upper mountain lift operations at exposed mountains.

An area of low pressure is forecast to spin south through CA, with the latest model runs showing the track just to our west. That should brush us with at least some light snow later Friday evening into Saturday morning. Possibly starting around 9 PM Friday.

low friday

The latest forecast model runs are starting to agree on this track, but they don't agree on the formation, how much moisture, and the exact position of a band of steadier precipitation setting up over the Sierra on the east side of the low. We have some model runs like the NAM showing very little moisture...


...while other models like the GFS show a decent amount, with snow showers into Saturday before ending later Saturday afternoon.


The Canadian and ICON models also show a bullseye of up to 0.6+ inches, but they disagree on where the heaviest precipitation falls around the basin and to the south. Some have it northwest, some northeast, and some southwest of the lake...

Snow levels look to start near lake level Friday evening and fall to around 4000-4500 ft. overnight. Then rising to around 4800-5800 ft. during the day on Saturday. It's hard to forecast snowfall when some models show little to no precip at all, while others show up to 9-tenths of an inch.

For the updated snowfall forecast this morning, I'm using the model average for the high-end numbers, spreading equal amounts across the basin, and putting a bit range with only 1-2 inches on the low end due to the drier models.


These systems are tricky as the lows spin down from the north. The exact track and where bands of snow form around the low can changes from run to run of the models. Hopefully, we can get a better idea of potential snowfall over the next 2 days.

Saturday - Sunday Winds:

As the low drops into SoCal, the winds will turn from the east. We could see gusty east winds Saturday into Sunday with ridgetop gusts up to 40-50+mph, and even higher for east wind-prone areas like Kirkwood. Highs are only in the 20s for the upper mountains and 30s at lake level Saturday and 30s for Sunday. The gusty east winds could affect some lift operations and will make it feel even colder on the mountains.

We could see partly sunny skies by Saturday afternoon with mostly sunny skies for Sunday as the storm clears to our south.

Extended Forecast

By Monday high pressure is over CA. We could see mostly sunny skies with lighter winds and highs warming back into the 40s for the lower elevations.

By Tuesday into next Wednesday the 15th, a cold trough is still forecast to dig south into CA, with some snow showers possible with the cold front Tuesday.

snow showers

Behind the front, much colder air moves in with highs dropping into the 20s for Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday.

That trough could move east pretty quickly with high pressure returning over CA later next week along with temperatures warming back into the 30s and 40s for highs.

Fantasy Range:

By President's Weekend (18th-20th) into the last week of February. The long-range models continue to show a broad trough setting up over the West/Midwest for a while. The question is still the exact position. Overall the ensemble mean models have been trending a bit east with the trough.

The European ensemble mean model is still the farthest east with the trough centered more over the Midwest and the ridge off the coast closer to CA.


That would likely bring us a drier pattern with any storms dropping down from the north possibly missing us to the east or brushing us with lighter precipitation. The GFS ensemble mean model is still farther west with the trough.


That would be a colder and possibly wetter position, but it has been trending a bit east. Yesterday it showed the trough farther west with a better chance for wetter storms starting around the 18th into the last week of February. Now it shows a position that could bring light-moderate systems from the north-northwest.

The Canadian ensemble mean model is between the two. We will have to continue to watch the trends, but they are trending in the wrong direction for a wetter pattern. The GFS model shows a few storms moving through during the period, but the ensemble mean run isn't overly wet through the 24th, and it's the wettest model run.

gefs precip

We may be stuck with these weak systems for now...

Stay tuned...BA


Fresh Tracks!

This week BA is on a beach somewhere while Mike and Evan discuss another storm that pushed through the west, record cold in the east, and the potential pattern through mid-February. We also talk to Caleb as he continues his travels through the West.