We are starting off the day with lighter winds and inversions Thursday. We will warm into the 40s for highs along with mostly sunny skies.

That weather continues for Friday with the exception being increasing winds from the southwest, gusting up to 50-60+ mph over the ridges by later in the day.

Friday Night - Saturday System:

The latest forecast model runs show the upper-level low dropping south through CA near the coast Friday night through Saturday.

The flow is counter-clockwise around the low with the band of precipitation on the east side interacting with the Sierra as the system moves by. The forecast models are struggling with how to handle this interaction as it pertains to where bands of steadier precip set up and how heavy the precipitation is.

We could see snow showers move near the crest around 8-10 PM Friday with the steadiest snow showers west of the lake with the southwesterly flow. Then in the early morning hours Saturday, the winds drop and turn east and pick back up, with ridgetop gusts up to 40-50+ mph by Saturday afternoon. that could bring steadier snow showers to the east side of the basin.

As the low shifts south of the area the snow showers should end by Saturday evening, possibly earlier in the day northwest of the lake. The snow levels look to start out near lake level Friday evening and then over in the 5000-5500 ft. range through Saturday. Cold enough for snow to lake level but not a cold storm.

For the total precipitation forecasts, the latest model runs Thursday morning have eliminated the bullseyes of heavier precipitation. Some only show light precip mainly west of the lake near the crest with no increase on the east side of the basin from the east flow. Some show the highest totals northeast of the lake near Mt. Rose from the east flow.

The remainder show the heaviest precip falling south of the basin into the Central Sierra, like the GFS model below.

This struggle with how the flow around the low interacts with the mountains will likely continue right up to the arrival of the storm. It's a real pain to try and forecast where the most snow will fall. The only confidence is that it will likely be less than 6 inches on the high-end in total around the Tahoe region. Here is my updated snowfall forecast showing equal chances for the higher amounts around the basin.

We will just have to watch and see where the heaviest bands set up Friday night into Saturday, and which mountains could get the higher end of the forecast. But overall a weak storm with low snowfall, just enough to freshen up some of the slopes. Highs drop into the 30s for Saturday and 20s for the upper elevations.

Sunday - Monday:

High pressure builds back in briefly Sunday into Monday. Highs warm into the 30s for Sunday and 40s for Monday under mostly sunny skies.

East winds could still be gusting up to 40-50+ mph over the ridges Sunday morning, and then come down through the day. Monday starts with lighter winds but then they shift to the west ahead of the approaching trough from the north, and increase through the afternoon with ridgetop gusts up to 60-70+ mph by the end of the day. That could affect some upper mountain lifts.

Tuesday Trough:

A cold trough digs into the West Tuesday with a chance for snow showers with the front.

Right now it looks like maybe a dusting up to a couple of inches of snow at best with the front Tuesday. Then much colder air moves in into Wednesday. Highs only into the 20s both days.

The cold trough shifts east by next Thursday into Friday the 17th. That should continue the dry pattern with a slight warmup of high temperatures.

Going into President's Weekend, the long-range models continue to show another cold trough digging into the West. This time becoming much broader and sticking around into the last week of February.

The European ensembles have shifted back west a bit with the trough placement, more in line with what the GFS ensembles are showing. Overall CA is on the west side of the trough with an amplified ridge in the eastern Pacific just off the West Coast. That flow from the north on the east side of the high-pressure ridge will help to drive colder air into the trough with below-average temperatures expected into the last week of February.

Storms can track south into the west side of the trough but would most likely be tracking down over land and not the ocean where they pick up moisture. Right now the models only show chances for weak systems dropping down from the north with light snowfall amounts if we see any. They can also track down to our east if the trough is far enough west.

The long-range ensemble mean models show only light precipitation amounts in total through the 24th...

...with below-average precipitation overall into the last week of February.

This is a pretty typical La Nina pattern the models are showing and one we have seen several times this winter. More cold than snow. Hopefully, a few systems will track down closer to the coast and tap into Pacific moisture to bring us some measurable snow. But nothing is in sight right now. I'll keep looking for you.

Stay tuned...BA

Fresh Tracks!

This week BA is on a beach somewhere while Mike and Evan discuss another storm that pushed through the west, record cold in the east, and the potential pattern through mid-February. We also talk to Caleb as he continues his travels through the West.