Snowfall Reports:

Quite the storm as the cyclone center stalled over the Bay Area Tuesday. The effects were much more minimal over the northern Sierra and the Tahoe Basin as we expected. We saw the band of steadier snow swing through during the day with a few scattered snow showers Tuesday night.

With the southeast flow, we were expecting much less snow to the north of the lake than to the south into the central and southern Sierra. In my final forecast early Tuesday morning I was calling for 1-5 inches of snow northwest of the lake with slightly more possible on the east and south sides. Then a dusting to an inch possible Wednesday & Wednesday night for storm totals of 2-7+ inches by Thu morning.

As of 7 AM Wednesday morning, we have snowfall reports of 1-6" northwest of the lake, with the only surprise being Homewood picking up an inch over the high end of my forecast. Amounts tapered to the NW towards Donner Summit. The east side ski areas are reporting 3-7 inches so no surprises there. South side of the lake reports of 6-11 inches, with Sierra & Kirkwood picking up a bit more than I expected.

The heavier snow to the south reached a bit farther north than expected including Dodge Ridge. I did call for them to possibly break a foot of snow, but they picked up 18 inches! Seems like they get the over almost every storm this season and are now having the snowiest season in their history. Amounts of 1-2 feet for the central and southern Sierra, which is in Mike K's forecast zone.

Wednesday - Friday Snow Showers:

The center of the low is still spinning near the Bay Area Wednesday morning...

...but it's losing its mojo as the moisture diminishes. Only scattered showers spinning around the low into the Sierra this morning.

Temperatures are in the 20s and ridgetop winds from the south are gusting up to 40-50+ mph. The low will move southeast into southern NV with the winds diminishing and changes for scattered snow showers continuing. Between showers, we will likely see a mix of clouds and some sun with highs into the 20s for the upper elevations and 30s for lake level.

Scattered snow showers could stick around through Wednesday night, and then another weak system swinging through could bring a better chance for some snow showers Thursday into Thursday night. 

Scattered snow showers could linger into Friday but with a better chance for some sun and clouds. The best chance for any steadier snow showers over the 3-day period will be west of the lake up along the crest and over the higher peaks, with the mountain lift helping to squeeze out precipitation. Over the lake less of a chance and it will be hard for any snow to stick during the day other than on top of snow on the ground.

We could see ridgetop winds from the west increase Thursday, with gusts up to 50-60+ mph during the afternoon. That could affect a few exposed upper mountain lifts. Then lighter for Friday. Highs continue to be in the 20s for the upper mountains and 30s for lake level and the lower mountain elevations.

In total by Saturday morning the models only show up to 1-2 tenths of an inch of total precipitation on the mountains on the east side of teh basin, and 2-4 tenths on the west side up to the crest. The GFS model is the outlier showing about double that. The total model average is around 0.4 inches near the crest over the 3 days, very little...

Snow levels will fluctuate between 3000-5000 ft. at night and then rising with the daytime heating up to 5000-6000 ft. during the day. Low enough for snow to lake level but as I said above, it will have a hard time sticking during the day. Snow ratios average around 10-16:1 from lake level up to 9000 ft. through Friday night.

We could see a dusting up to 2 inches of snow on the mountains by Thursday morning. The best chance for accumulating snowfall on teh mountains looks to be Thursday-Thursday night with a dusting up to 4 inches, highest near the crest. Then a final dusting to an inch is possible Friday-Friday night. Here is the updated forecast for Wednesday - Friday night.

For most of you sitting at home, this will be a non-event with partly sunny skies and a few flakes, and maybe a few snow showers Thursday with a dusting to an inch or two. Most of the snow will be falling and accumulating on the peaks and along the crest, so you will have to be up skiing to see it.

The Weekend:

Cold and unsettled for the weekend with partly-mostly sunny skies and a few scattered snow showers possible. Highs continue to be in the 20s for the upper elevations and 30s for take level along with winds on the lighter side. 

The total precipitation forecasts are for 0.05 - 0.25 inches in total over the weekend, with the highest amounts along the crest.

So not enough to warrant a detailed snowfall forecast. Mostly a dusting of snow possible on the mountains each 12-hour period if any snow shoes move through. The best chance may be during the afternoons with the instability from daytime heating and mountain lift.

The forecast models from Monday and beyond have been changing over the past 24 hours. They are speeding up the arrival of the cut-off low moving south down the CA coast early next week. The European model now shows snow pushing back into the northern/central Sierra as early as Monday. It is also tapping into some deeper Pacific moisture to the west and pointing a weak/narrow AR at the Sierra.

The GFS & Canadian models are slower with the arrival holding off until later Monday night or Tuesday. They are also not tapping into as much of a moisture feed, but they still show some heavier precipitation Tuesday. Then the low could be over the region keeping snow showers around through Wednesday and possibly lingering into next Thursday the 30th.

We'll be watching the trends with this storm closely over the next few days. I'll have an initial snowfall forecast out Thursday morning if the arrival looks to be Monday, or Friday morning if it slows until Tuesday. Expect increasing winds Monday and possibly heavier snow into Tuesday, and snow showers next Wednesday and possibly into Thursday.

It looks to be a cold storm with snow to lake level. It's still too early to look at possible precipitation and snowfall amounts, but most of the latest model runs show at least 1-2" of liquid over the Tahoe basin, and the European model shows even more.

So right now the models are trending toward snowfall totals measured in feet next week and not inches, but they could trend lower as they did with this week's storm, so we will be cautiously optimistic, or pessimistic if you are done with the snowfall this season.

Fantasy Range:

By day 10 we are on the last day of March and headed into the first weekend and week of April. The long-range models over the past 24 hours have been trending towards the trough shifting a bit farther east by the end of the month, with high-pressure building over the eastern Pacific closer to the West coast going into the weekend of the 1st-2nd.

They suggest a weak system could bring a few more snow showers on the last day of the month. Then possibly drier weather with some sun for the first week of April.

Maybe I willed a sunny weekend for the WinterWonderGrass Festival at Palisades that weekend after all?! You will find me in this crowd.

The ensemble mean models are now showing a drier pattern through the 1st week of April.

We could still see some weak systems move through, and the forecast could always shift to the ridge being a bit farther west of the coast with some snow the first weekend of April. But the trends are going in the opposite direction today.

I'll continue to watch the trends to see if winter will try to hang on into April, or if it will give up like some of you have after taking a beating in this big winter season.

Stay tuned...BA

Fresh Tracks!

Jenni Charles from the Dead Winter Carpenters joins the show to promote the WinterWonderGrass Festival at Palisades Tahoe from 3/31-4/2. We come up with a name for the trough that has been stuck over the West all winter. We celebrate the first day of spring as winter looks to continue. Plus all of the snowfall reports and forecasts for the ski regions!

Available on most podcast platforms...