I've been working on my post off and on all morning as I had several appointments I had to get to since early Thursday. So I'm getting this post finished here around 1 PM. Sorry for the later post.

Snowfall Reports:

We were expecting 0-2 inches of snow from the scattered snow showers Wednesday-Wednesday night, with the highest totals near the crest. We saw about double that with 0-4 inches of snow being reported. Mainly 0-1 inches on the east side of the basin except for Mt. Rose with 4. There was a band of snow stalled out near them Wednesday afternoon.

The west side up to the crest is reporting 24-hour totals as of 7 AM Thursday of 1-4 inches. That brings the 2-day totals to 3-12 inches around the lake, and 1-2 feet farther south into the central Sierra.

My final forecast for the 2-day period early Monday morning was for 2-7 inches for most mountains around the lake. I had a note that up to a foot of snow was possible near Mt. Rose and over a foot was possible down near Dodge Ridge. The heavier snow pushed a bit higher north with a foot of snow falling at both Kirkwood and Sierra at Tahoe SW of the lake.

Here is the Keep Me Honest Report Card for the 2-day period. Homewood, Sugar Bowl, & the Snow Lab picked up 1-4 inches more than forecast on the northwest side of the basin. Sierra & Kirkwood picked up 6 inches more than forecast. The rest of the mountains picked up the forecast range with Mt. Rose picking up close to a foot and over a foot at Dodge Ridge.

For those not familiar with the report cards, I started tracking the variance of the final reported snowfall totals after each storm versus my final forecasts put out before storms arrive. Partly just to keep track of accuracy to improve my methods, and partly due to suggestions that we over forecast to make ski areas happy, which is not true and never made sense.

No one would follow our forecasts if we just constantly over forecast storms and were wrong every time. If we had no readers ski areas wouldn't advertise. You get more readers from accuracy & honesty which leads to more advertisers. Now we are a subscription site and work directly for you our subscribers. But I still like to keep track. My average variance so far this season is 2.4 inches, and my 7-year variance is 1.6 inches.

Thursday Snow:

There is plenty of cold unstable moist air over the northeast Pacific flowing into the Sierra with each weak system moving through. 

That is the perfect setup for the mountains to lift that air as if flows over them causing snow showers over the mountains. Looking that the radar midday Thursday you can see the Sierra mountains doing their job squeezing out snow showers. 

Snow showers are expected to continue into Thursday night but becoming more scattered. Highs are only in the 20s for the upper mountains Thursday and into the 30s at lake level. Ridgetop winds are gusting up to 40-50+ mph from the southwest. They are expected to increase a bit more into Thursday night.

The latest model runs for the Thursday system came in a little wetter as this system was moving in Thursday morning. They show up to 0.2 - 0.6 inches of total precipitation near the crest by Friday morning, and up to 0.25 inches to the east side of the basin. The total model average near the crest is around 0.4 inches. Here is the WPC"s blended model forecast.

Snow levels are below lake level around 5000-5500 ft. Thursday and falling below 4000 ft. Thursday night. Snow ratios around 10-14:1 from lake level up to 9000 ft. Thursday and 12-19:1 Thursday night. That would bring some powdery snow to the upper mountains. Here is my final forecast for the Thursday storm.

I know I'm supposed to put out the final forecast before the storm moves in, but I'm running way behind today so I couldn't get it out early Thursday morning. I hope you can excuse it this one time. 

Friday - Sunday Weather:

The latest model runs are a little drier for the weekend. We will still have a weak system and some moist air flowing through the region, but we should see partly-mostly sunny skies during the day. We could see some scattered snow showers, especially near the crest and over the highest peaks. Afternoon heating could also help with lift and showers popping up.

Highs remain in the 20s for the upper elevations and 30s at lake level. The winds will be lighter throughout the period. Overall a fairly nice weekend with only ambiance snow. The latest model runs mostly show less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation in total over the 3 days.

Only dusting is expected from any snow showers moving through. Maybe a heavier shower pops up someplace and drops a quick inch.

Monday -  Wednesday Storm:

We continue to track the next chance for significant snowfall as an area of low pressure drops down the West Coast early next week.

We may start the day dry on Monday with increasing clouds and winds throughout the day. Ridgetop winds from the southwest gusting up to 40-50+ mph by afternoon and increasing more into Monday night. The GFS model shows snow reaching the northern Sierra by late afternoon, with the European model holding off until Monday night. Highs remain in the 20s for the upper mountains and 30s at lake level.

This storm is tapping into some deeper Pacific moisture and once the snow moves in it could be heavy through Tuesday. Then snow showers Tuesday night become more scattered for Wednesday. The latest model runs show the storm clearing out by Thursday. The winds could be strong into Tuesday and then dropping later in the day into Wednesday.

There is a bit of a large range for precipitation totals forecast as the models try to get a handle on how much moisture this system will have, and where it will direct the heaviest precipitation amounts. We could see 1.4 - 3.3 inches west of the lake down the crest, and up to 2 inches to the east side of the basin. The total model average near the crest is around 2.1 inches. Here is the WPC's blended model forecast.

It's a fairly cold storm with snow levels expected to start out around 5000-5500 ft. late afternoon/evening Monday. Then falling below 4000 ft. Monday night and staying around 3000-4000 ft. for Tuesday. Then dropping below 2000 ft. Tuesday night and up to 5000 ft. by the end of the showers Wednesday.

That means fairly high snow ratios and powdery snow is expected for the mountains. Snow ratios could average around 11-17:1 from lake level up to 9000 ft. Monday night - Tuesday, and a bit higher with any snow showers Tuesday night - Wednesday. Here is my initial snowfall forecast for the storm.

If the storm trends toward the wetter model runs as it gets closer we may have to push the forecast up slightly. Right now a general 1-2.5 feet of snow is expected on the mountains. Could Tuesday & Wednesday be the last of the bigger powder days of the season?

By the 31st into the first week of April, the long-range models are still suggesting that high-pressure builds in near the West Coast.

Some model runs still suggest a weak system moving through with a few snow showers, but overall the trend is still toward a drier weekend with partly-mostly sunny skies. I'll appreciate that sitting outside to judge the Dummy Downhill event at Diamond Peak on Saturday the 1st.

Fantasy Range:

Beyond that weekend the ensemble mean models suggest that the ridge could shift east and another trough could dig in over the West Coast through the end of the 1st week of April.

That could open up the pattern to seeing a better chance of weak systems moving through with some snow showers, and keeping our temperatures below average like they have been most of this season. As we go into April it will be harder to see any wetter storms unless they are a slow-moving cut-off low.

Overall the long-range models show near to below-average precipitation through the first week of April.

That's something we haven't seen for most of this season. We'll have to see if winter will try to finally die off in April, or if it will try to hang on. Several ski areas have already extended their seasons to the end of April or all the way out to the end of May, and Palisades just announced today that they will be open for the 4th of July!

Stay tuned...BA

The Flakes!

Jenni Charles from the Dead Winter Carpenters joins the show to promote the WinterWonderGrass Festival at Palisades Tahoe from 3/31-4/2. We come up with a name for the trough that has been stuck over the West all winter. We celebrate the first day of spring as winter looks to continue. Plus all of the snowfall reports and forecasts for the ski regions!

Available on most podcast platforms...