All systems are go for the final big storm for March, and maybe for the season? That is likely music to the ears of a lot of homeowners who have been battling record snowfall all season, but of course no promises.

There's a beautiful low-pressure cyclone spinning down the coast Tuesday and tapping into some subtropical moisture which is being drawn into the front approaching the Sierra.

Light snow showers are trying to push in near the crest NW of the lake early Tuesday morning.

As we go the through morning the precipitation will load on the west slope up to the crest with the snow intensity increasing. Then spilling over across the Tahoe basin through the afternoon and into the evening with the cold front, with moderate-heavy snow for most areas. Ridgetop winds are gusting up to 80-100+ mph through the day with highs in the 30s at lake level and 20s for the upper elevations.

Snow showers continue Tuesday night with a bit of a lull possible into Wednesday morning. Then the moisture and instability with the low moving by to our west Wednesday afternoon-evening along with daytime heating will bring back an increase in snow showers. Here is a look at the forecast radar through midday Wednesday.

The winds will drop off on Wednesday. With quite a few upper mountain lifts likely closed on Tuesday it is setting up what could be the last deep powder morning of the season Wednesday. Highs in the 20s for the upper mountains and 30s at lake level again on Wednesday.

The latest model runs haven't changed much over the past 24 hours. They show a range of 1.2 - 1.8 inches of total precipitation near the crest and up to 1.3 inches to the east side of the basin. the total model average is up very slightly to around 1.7 inches near the crest. A bit more is likely south of the Tahoe basin into the central Sierra.

Snow levels look to be around 5000-5500 ft. over the lake through Tuesday, and then dropping below 3000 ft. Tuesday night. Then back up to around 4500-5000 ft. Wednesday afternoon and below 3000 ft. again Wednesday night. Snow ratios average around 11-16:1 from lake level up to 9000 ft. and slightly higher at night with some powdery snow for the upper mountains.

Here is a look at the updated forecast which is the same as teh final forecast from Monday morning for the storm. Most of the snow is expected to fall by Wednesday morning with up to a few inches of additional snowfall possible with the snow showers Wednesday afternoon-evening.

I put Dodge Ridge into the higher forecast zone as they are near a bullseye of 2"+ of liquid on most models. Wednesday looks like a great day of skiing. We'll tally up the storm totals Thursday morning.

Thursday - Friday Weather:

There could still be enough moisture in the air and instability with daytime heating for scattered snow showers each afternoon-evening, but overall it's looking much drier with partly-mostly sunny skies both days. Highs into the 30s.

Weekend Weather:

Lots of activities going on this weekend around the basin and at the ski areas as it is the first weekend of April and many years we have spring skiing. Not this year as it will stay cold with highs in the 20s above 8000 ft. and 30s down to lake level. 

The forecast models are still split on the track of the next two systems for Saturday and again Sunday afternoon-night. Around half are farther north and drier and half are farther south and wetter on both days. We could see partly sunny skies with gusty winds on both days and scattered snow showers.

Ridgetop winds gusting up 60-80+ mph from the west which could affect some upper mountain lift operations this weekend. If the wetter model runs are right we could see a coating up to a few inches of snow on Saturday, most of which is expected west of the lake up along the crest.

The Sunday system is a bit wetter and if it digs far enough south as the European model shows we could see some steady snow move in later in the day into Sunday night after starting the day with partly sunny skies.

The GFS model only brushes us with a dusting of snow while the European model would bring up to a foot of snow near the crest by Monday morning. So we still have a lot to iron out for the weekend snowfall over the next few days. The model average has up to 0.7 inches of total precip near the crest for the weekend with amounts falling off to the east and south.

Snow levels could hover near lake level (~6k') Saturday, drop below 5000 ft. Saturday night, up to 6500-7000 ft. Sunday afternoon, and back below 5000 ft. Sunday night. That means a little rain is possible at lake level at the start of any precipitation Sunday afternoon. Snow ratios could be a bit lower with thicker snow on the mountains and wet snow for the lower elevations.

With the models split between partly sunny skies with a dusting of snow possible each day and two systems that could bring snow Saturday and again later Sunday-Sunday night, all we can do is take the model average. That would give us a dusting up to a few inches of snow on the mountains Saturday, and 1-6 inches of snow Sunday night. Here is my updated snowfall forecast for weekend snowfall.

This time I put the mountains to the south of the Tahoe basin in the "Central - 6k" forecast range with the storms fizzling to the south. We have a few more days of fine-tuning ahead to see if we will just see a few scattered snow showers or accumulating snowfall for the mountains this weekend, but overall not a warm and sunny spring skiing weekend for the outdoor events.

The snow showers from the Sunday night systems could linger into Monday and then clearing later in the day. Still cold with highs in the 20s for the upper mountains and 30s at lake level. The winds should drop off as well.

The latest long-range model runs show a break in the storms next Tuesday into Wednesday the 5th. The trough hangs around through the end of the week so temperatures stay below average but the strong spring sun should feel pretty good. Highs warming into the 30s and maybe breaking 40 degrees at lake level by Wednesday.

With the trough over the West Coast through the end of the week the operational models show another storm possibly dropping into the trough and into CA next Thursday the 6th.

We'll be keeping an eye on that storm and the pattern for the 3rd-7th with the storm door still open to storms. 

Fantasy Range:

By Easter Sunday, and going through the 2nd week of April, the ensemble mean models continue to show high pressure building over the West Coast.

That could bring the first prolonged drier and milder pattern since I can't remember when, lol. We have had only a few days of dry weather at best most of this winter. We'll have to see if this forecast holds, but it still looks promising.

Going later into April and May we can see snowstorms, but the chances of a stronger storm become less and less outside of a rogue cut-off low stalling over the area. It's possible that today's (Tuesday's) storm could be the last one of the season to drop up to 2+ feet of snow on the northern/central Sierra, or nature could still have a surprise or two still up its sleeve at the end of this crazy season.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. We had a great time recording the podcast last night with Pixie & The Partygrass Boys! You can check it out below or on most podcast platforms on your phone.

Fresh Tracks!

Pixie & The Partygrass Boys join the show to promote the WinterWonderGrass Festival at Palisades Tahoe from 3/31-4/2! We look at the insane snowfall totals on the updated Top 10 Snowfall List. Plus all of the Snowfall Reports and Forecasts for the Western ski regions.

Available on most podcast platforms...