Snowfall Reports:

Of the final forecast amounts put on Monday morning for the 2-day storm we expected around 11-21 inches of snow to fall by Wednesday morning. The ski areas around the Tahoe basin are reporting 11-22 inches of snow this morning.

That sounds like we had no surprises with the blizzard on Tuesday, but we did pick up the low end of the snowfall forecast for a few ski areas, and below the forecast for a few like at Palisades and Tahoe Donner. Mt. Rose is an anomaly and already has 5 inches over the forecast for the entire storm.

There could be a lot of wind issues for mountains along the crest with the Snow Lab scientists in a very wind-protected spot measuring 22 inches from 2.3 inches of liquid, and places nearby like Palisades only measuring 12 inches.

Wednesday Snow Showers:

The center of the low-pressure system is dropping south along the CA coast Wednesday morning and will continue to do so through the day.

We have partly-mostly sunny skies over the lake to start the day but clouds will increase as the low moves by to our west and we see more lift and instability with the daytime heating. The ridgetop winds are dropping and we are starting the day with temperatures in the teens on the mountains and 20s at lake level.

We have a lull in the snow showers Wednesday morning as we expected between the cold front passing through Tuesday and the low moving through Wednesday. You can see the precipitation spinning around the east side of the low into northern CA Wednesday morning, just to our west.

As we go through the day on Wednesday we expect snow showers to increase again over the Sierra through the afternoon and into the evening before diminishing again Wednesday night. Here is a look at the forecast radar.

With the sun out this morning and highs warming into the 30s for lake level during the day, we don't expect more than scattered snow showers with light accumulations only on top of the snow already on the ground. Highs are only in the 20s for the upper mountains with light accumulations possible through the evening.

The latest model runs only show 1-2 tenths of an inch of precipitation falling over the mountains through Wednesday evening as we only get brushed by some showers on the east side of the low.

Snow levels should hover around 4500-5500 ft. through the afternoon and then drop below 4000 ft. as the snow showers clear Wednesday night. Snow ratios of 10-14:1 from lake level up to 9000 ft. during the day on Wednesday. Here is the forecast for final snowfall with snow showers Wednesday-Wednesday evening.

The best chance to see someone break 2 inches could be southwest of the lake near Kirkwood and northeast near Mt. Rose. We need around 1-2 inches of additional snowfall to get the majority of the mountains into my final snowfall forecast range for the storm. Palisades looks to come in under the forecast which is disappointing as I was hoping they would break 700" with this storm.

Thursday - Friday:

Partly-Monday sunny skies for both days with highs into the 30s. Maybe even near 40 degrees near lake level on Thursday. The winds look to stay on the lighter side.

With the daytime heating and some moisture in the atmosphere from systems moving through to our north, we could see a few very light and scattered snow showers pop up over the peaks both days during the afternoon-evening, or we could see nothing at all. Not expecting more than a dusting-coating of snow at best with any snow showers.

The Weekend:

The latest model runs have trended farther north with the Saturday System, and are delaying the steadier snowfall with the Sunday system until the nighttime hours. That means we could continue to see partly-mostly sunny skies on both days with highs in the 30s. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 60-80+ mph from the WSW which could affect some upper mountain ski lifts both days.

We could see a slightly better chance for a few snow showers to pop up over the mountains Saturday afternoon-evening, especially NW of the lake near the crest. But only expecting a dusting to an inch of snow at best for most mountains with any snow showers.

Sunday evening into Monday the next system moves through bringing a better chance for some steadier snow showers.

I will likely break this off into its own snowfall forecast as we get closer, but for now, I'll forecast just through Sunday night for the "weekend" period. The latest model runs show up to 0.5 inches of precip near the crest for Sunday night and up to 0.3 inches to the east side of the lake, with weekend totals of 0.4 - 0.75 inches by early Monday morning

Snow levels could be near lake level in the 6000-6500 ft. range Saturday and Sunday afternoons, and dropping below 5000 ft. at night. Sunday night with the steadier snow showers we could see snow levels drop below 3000 ft. by early Monday morning. Here is the updated snowfall forecast for the weekend.

Around a dusting to an inch would be from snow showers Saturday and Sunday afternoon, and 1-6 inches from Sunday night.

Snow showers could continue into Monday with up to a few additional inches. Then the forecast models diverge on the latest runs through the rest of the week. The 06z GFS model run shows the storm track shifting north with only a few weak systems brushing the Sierra through the end of the week.

The latest European model run is the opposite with a slow-moving 3-day storm Tue-Thu.

It shows significant precipitation and snowfall through the end of next week.

So we need to figure out what is going to happen as that's a big difference. The forecast models tend to struggle during spring with the change in the seasons. They struggled ahead of this upcoming weekend, and now they're struggling with next week.

Fantasy Range:

There is better agreement two weeks out than there is a week out. The long-range ensemble mean models continue to show high-pressure building over the West Coast beyond the 8th through the 2dn week of April.

The models are split on the exact placement and whether we see below-average temperatures stick around or finally warm up. But they agree on a drier pattern and below-average precipitation.

We'll have to see if that will continue to stick and if winter is finally dying down or faking us out.

Stay tuned...BA

Fresh Tracks!

Pixie & The Partygrass Boys join the show to promote the WinterWonderGrass Festival at Palisades Tahoe from 3/31-4/2! We look at the insane snowfall totals on the updated Top 10 Snowfall List. Plus all of the Snowfall Reports and Forecasts for the Western ski regions.

Available on most podcast platforms...