Snowfall Reports:

We have a few ski areas that updated their storm totals from the storm that moved out Thursday. The final reported storm totals were 2-14 inches, adding to the impressive March totals.

My final forecast for the storm was for 6-20 inches. As you know I already beat myself up over the forecast vs actuals, with the variance due to ALL of the forecast models over forecasting precipitation amounts. Here is the forecaster report card for the storm, with the totals averaging 3.6 inches less than my forecast range.

We'll be adding even more snow to the March totals over the next few days. March has been so good it's giving several ski areas a shot at hitting or exceeding average snowfall for the season, even after one of the worst starts to the season on record as of 1/1!

Friday - Sunday Storm:

A low-pressure system is spinning near the CA coast Friday morning. It will spread snow showers over the Sierra through the day, reaching the crest by late morning and spreading east from there. Then steadier snow is expected Friday night and turning more showery Saturday as the low moves down the coast.

The flow starts to easterly through the day Saturday on the north side of the low as it begins to move inland. The forecast models show steadier snow on the east side of the Sierra into Saturday night. Then scattered snow showers could linger into Sunday. Highs in the 30s through the weekend. We are not expecting strong winds with this storm, but gusty ridgetop winds up to 30-40+ mph.

With the way the precipitation is rotating around the low as it moves south and east down the coast and inland well to our south, the models show almost as much precipitation falling on the east side of the Sierra as on the west side by the end. Here is a look at the Saturday night - Sunday precipitation forecast where you can see heavier precipitation to the east over Nevada and a blue dot over Mt. Rose.

The heavier precipitation on the west side of the Sierra is expected Friday into Saturday. Overall the models have come into better agreement on the storm totals. They show 1.1 - 1.6 inches of precipitation near the crest by Sunday night, and up to 1.4 inches to the east side of the lake. Some models even put the highest totals northeast of the lake over Mt. Rose.

The model average overall is down slightly this morning with the high-end forecasts averaging around 1.3 inches. Around 50-60% of that could fall on the west side of the basin by Saturday morning, with 60-70% of the precipitation on the east side of the basin falling Saturday through Sunday.

The snow levels will fluctuate between 4000-6000 ft. through the weekend, with lower snow levels at night and with heavier bands of precip, and higher snow levels during the day and with lighter precipitation. But overall we should see all snow to lake level through the end of the storm. The snow ratios could average around 9-15:1 between 6000-9000 ft through the weekend.

Here is my final snowfall forecast for Friday through Sunday. 

Breaking up the snowfall totals, they should match the precipitation with 50-60% of the forecast for the west side falling by Saturday morning, and 60-70% of the forecast for the east side falling Saturday into Sunday. South of Kirkwood we could see the 9k' west side totals down to Dodge Ridge, or even a bit more.

There is a chance that the deformation band on the north side of the low stalls out someplace over the Tahoe basin and drops more snow than forecast, but it's hard to predict where that could happen.

Monday - Wednesday:

High pressure builds in over the West for Monday through Wednesday.

That will quickly bring a return of spring weather. Mostly sunny skies are expected each day with highs into the 40s on Monday, and then into the 50s for the lower elevations on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The long-range models continue to show a trough digging back into the West from the 4th - 8th.

That will bring a return of colder air and will open the door to storms dropping down from the north. The first could be associated with the initial cold front on Thursday the 4th, and then another system or two could move through by the 8th. 

The latest model runs are showing the chance for a wetter storm or two, not quite as weak as the storms they were showing. Here is the final storm being shown by the European model for the 8th, which tracks down the coast.

We'll continue to watch the trends as we get closer to this period. This could bring another fresh tracks morning or two in April.

Fantasy Range:

By the 9th through the 2nd week of April, the long-range models continue to show high pressure in the eastern Pacific shifting closer to or over the West Coast.

That could be game over for storms, at least of any significance, with nice spring weather locking in.

Most ski areas close between the middle and end of April, so we'll have to see if any pattern changes show up before then, but no signs of that right now.

Stay tuned...BA