Summary:

Winds are howling this morning as the storm approaches.  We will see the clouds continue to increase this morning with gusty winds.  The snow should reach the crest by late morning and push into the Tahoe Basin by afternoon.  Heavy snowfall expected this afternoon before becoming showery overnight into Wednesday.  3-8 inches expected at lake level, and 5-11 inches on the mountains.  

Scattered snow showers are possible Wednesday and Thursday, with an increased chance again Friday into Saturday.  We could see a few more inches of snow over the period.  After a break Sunday the next storm could move in by Monday next week, with subsequent waves through the week.

Details:

No changes this morning other than the winds are a little stronger than forecast.  Gusts overnight around 70 mph recorded on top of the ridge.  We could see gusts even higher on ridge tops this morning as the storm approaches.  At lake level winds are gusting 35-40 mph.  That should be kicking up the surf on Lake Tahoe.  

The forecast models have been very consistent with the total precip forecast the last 2 days.  I have no change to my snowfall forecast by Wednesday morning based on the latest runs.  This is from yesterday.

The only change would be if the forecast models are not picking up on how much moisture the cold low will pick up from the warm ocean today.  The center of the circulating low has dropped South from over land up in Canada to just off the coast of Washington overnight.

The longer it sits over water before moving inland over CA the more moisture it could pick up today.  But for now the forecast looks to remain on track over the last several days for more cold than snow, but up to a foot of fluffy snow on the mountains by Wednesday morning, maybe a couple inches more on the highest peaks West of the lake along the crest.  Also, the snow levels could drop as low as 1500 feet, so if you are traveling up I-80 today or tonight keep in mind you may hit snow fairly low.

The snow should reach the crest by late morning and push into the basin by afternoon.  Expecting the heaviest snowfall during the afternoon as the cold front moves through and then lighter snow showers overnight.  Here is the radar showing the precip approaching the last 2 hours as of 6 a.m.

No change to the very cold air moving in that will last into the weekend with highs only in the teens on the mountain tops and 20's down to lake level through Saturday.  The low begins to move East over Nevada Wednesday into Thursday so the chances of snow showers will diminish.  But then the low is forecast to retrograde back towards CA Friday into Saturday before weakening and moving East again Sunday. That may increase the chance for snow showers again Friday into Saturday.  Total precip potential Wed-Sat is very light.  We could see an additional 1-3 inches at lake level and 2-4 inches on the mountains.

That is what is giving us a 5 day forecast for totals that has looked like this.

Sorry for the glitch yesterday on the Resort Pages, we have a new system where I have to put in the starting date and I put in the wrong day yesterday which shifted the snowfall forecast forward a day.  That is where you can how the generalized forecast above breaks down by mountain.  The orange color just means enough snow in a 12 hour period for powder alert criteria.

The wild card on the East side of the lake and South side will be the chance for lake-effect snow tonight into Wednesday.  Cold West winds tonight could create a band of moderate snow on the East side of the lake near Spooner pass that could rotate South towards South Lake Wednesday as the winds turn more out of the North.  That could drop several inches of snow above the forecast so we will watch that.  It would also make traveling from Carson to South Lake a little harder.

Always love 5 day forecast images that look like this...

The low weakens and moves out Sunday with a break into Monday.  Temperatures Sunday into Monday also rise slightly back into the 30's at lake level, but still cold.

Long-Range:

With the ridge over Canada the storm door underneath into CA looks to remain open next week.  A large trough pushing into the Eastern Pacific may send the first wave into CA by late Monday into Tuesday next week.  That would kick-off more snowfall for the Tahoe Basin.  The trough may send additional waves into CA through the end of the week.  The forecast models are in fairly decent agreement that we could see a couple of systems next week, just differ on the amount of snow with each.  

If the GFS is correct and the trough is able to push close enough to the West Coast, we could see feet instead of inches.  It's still a week or more out so plenty of time to watch while we get through this storm.

Super long-range of the models still hinting at a break by the end of next week as the ridge build over the U.S. and the Eastern Pacific trough is not able to reach the West Coast.  Then by the end of the following week around the 10th it pushes into the West Coast again with a return of storms.  That is all out in fantasy range though so subject to change.

Stay tuned....BA 

P.S. reminder that I post several storm updates through the day including videos and pictures on the Facebook page, Twitter, and Instagram.  Instagram I use a little differently to post shots of weather or insights into things I'm doing. My wife wants me to do snapchat as well, but I'm getting overwhelmed with all of this social media.  I can't keep up...

I have an interesting day today as my lodge is having a big wedding in the middle of the snow storm....