Summary:

Sunny and seasonal today and Wednesday with highs in the 40's at lake level and 30's up on the mountains.  Winds pick up Wednesday night into Thursday morning ahead of the next storm.  Ridge gusts approaching 70 mph Thursday.  Cold front pushes snow across the Tahoe Basin by afternoon with scattered snow showers Thursday night tapering off by Friday morning.  We could see a few inches down to lake level with 3-9 inches on the mountains, and up to 12 inches on the highest peaks along the crest.

A break Friday and Saturday as an active storm pattern continues into the Pacific NW for the next 2 weeks.  We may get brushed by a storm to the North on Sunday and again Monday with only light showers expected.  A storm next Thursday might push a little further South into the area.

Details:

Not much change to the forecast from yesterday.  I left the individual resort forecasts alone for now.  I probably should push more of the snowfall in the day on Thursday as the latest model runs are a little faster with the front now.  We could see snow start along the crest Thursday morning and push into the basin Thursday afternoon.  Probably going to be some wind holds on Thursday.

The GFS has been backing off on total precip amounts and based just on that I would have pulled back the forecast.  But the European and Canadian model runs have been increasing precip close to what the GFS had yesterday.  The NAM is more in line with the GFS.  So we have a split and that's why I am keeping the snowfall forecast the same.

Here is the GFS from yesterday morning.

and now this morning...

Canadian from yesterday

Canadian today...

This will be a quick hitting cold front with slightly colder temperatures Friday behind the storm and then temperatures rebounding over the weekend.  So still 1-3 inches for lake level, with maybe 2-4 West of 89.  3-6 inches on the mountains on the East side of the basin and 6-9 on the West side.  Highest peaks west of the basin along the crest may hit 12 inches.

Seasonal and sunny Friday and Saturday.  The ridge is going to build off the coast and it looks like it wants to stay there for a while.  The storms will continued into the Pacific NW into next week.  There is a chance we get some light snow Sunday afternoon and again Monday from systems moving through to the North, but it doesn't look like we get much right now.

Long-Range:

Forecast models are still showing that the ridge could shift by next Thursday allowing a stronger trough to push further South into Northern CA.  That is not looking too impressive right now but we could get a light to moderate snowfall.  

The ensemble runs are split in the long-range on whether next Thursday is a pattern change to the ridge off the coast being replaced by a trough with a stormy pattern beginning, or if Thursday is just a quick hitter and then the ridge rebuilds along the West Coast keeping us dry.  We are still waiting for a real stormy pattern to setup with a break through of the Pacific storm train.  Peering through the telescope and still not seeing it coming yet...

I have the final numbers from the Truckee and South Lake airport reporting stations for November.

Truckee

South Lake

It was a cold month with a modest amount of snow for lake level, but below average for total precip.  The big difference I think everyone is feeling is the amount of snow at lake level this November even though we are below average for snowfall and precip.  The ski resorts also have about twice as much snowfall as they did the last 2 years, but half what fell by now in 2012 and 2010.

Stay tuned...Pray for BIG snow....BA