The summary I left the same as yesterday as the forecast hasn't changed really since yesterday.  The only change was a slight pattern adjustment for this weekend that doesn't change our forecast really.  The rest of the forecast is really just a rehash of yesterday's forecast as we wait out this dry spell and look for signs of storms to return.

For the weekend the adjustment was to have the ridge not quite as weak or flat over the West Coast, with the trough a bit to the North in the Northeast Pacific.  That will just keep most of the precipitation a bit further North into Washington as the storms move through over the weekend.

We have been watching for the ridge to possibly shift off the coast by the 20th allowing a trough to dive down from the North next Wednesday-Thursday with a shot of cold air and maybe some snow.  That forecast still looks the same again today.

Looking a little closer since it is only 8 days away now.  The GFS is drier on the latest model run, with a track more to our East as the system drops down from the North.

The GFS did have some wetter runs yesterday.  Some runs of the models try to form a closed low that spins down over CA pulling in some more moisture off the Pacific.  That was what was showing more precip for CA next week in the TahoeWeather Twitter post I sent out last night. 

The latest European model run is a bit wetter than the GFS for next Wednesday-Thursday as it shows the closed low scenario with a further West track.

We don't want to get into too much detail more than a week out which is why I left the maps zoomed out today.  The overall message is a pattern change next week that could bring some colder air and snowfall.  If we get snow the snow levels should be pretty low.

By the weekend of the 23rd the ridge builds back in along the West Coast returning the dry pattern possibly through Christmas.  

You can see that the center of the highest pressure this time is centered Northwest up near Alaska.  That has been giving us some hope that some storms could break underneath into CA around or just after Christmas.  That is easier said than done but it has shown up on various runs of the models in the long-range.

Looking at the GFS and European ensemble mean runs, which take an average of all their ensemble member runs (21-51 members), we see that they increase precip amounts from the 21st through the 27th.

That is taking the average of the dry and wet runs.  But it is what we are holding onto for hope we could see some snow the last week of the month.  I would say the odds are against us with the pattern but the odds are better than what they have been during this 2 week dry spell.

Looking at the European weeklies forecast yesterday the 30 day precipitation forecast through the first 12 days of January also gives us hope that storms are returning later in the month and into January.

Found this video from this week in 2015, brought back some good memories!

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. If you are celebrating Hanukkah, Happy Hanukkah!

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