Tahoe Daily Snow

The Cool Month of September...

Summary

- Cloudy and cool for Thursday with highs only in the 50's at lake level. - Sunny skies for Friday into the weekend with highs warming into the 60's. - Another cold front later Sunday into Monday brings clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. - We may see a warmup into the 70's for the middle of next week. - That is short-lived as we could see a strong cold front by the end of next week bringing colder air and the chance for more snow in the mountains.

Short Term Forecast

We had two cold systems move through this week bringing some showers and high elevation snow. A weaker system is on track for Sunday into Monday, and maybe a stronger cold front by the end of next week.

Snow This Week:

We saw a coating up to a few inches of snow on Monday, with some snow mixing all the way down to lake level! I drove up to Sugar Bowl midday to get a few shots of the snow.

snow

I also got in a quick practice run with the snow shovel...

shovel

We saw another dusting of snow Wednesday night above 8,000 feet from a 2nd weaker system.  Highs are only in the 50's, which is about 20 degrees below average. We should have highs in the 70's this time of year. 

So far this month we are running almost 2 degrees below average. It seems like we got in one warm dry month in August, and now we are back to the pattern of cool troughs moving through every few days.

The Forecast:

We will warm-up into the 60's at lake level and 50's on the mountains for the weekend as the trough moves east. Still below average but it will feel nice.  Great hiking weather!

Another (weaker) cold front for later Sunday into Monday will bring some clouds and slightly cooler air, along with some gusty winds. The chance of showers looks pretty limited this far south, and snow levels look to be above 12,000 feet.

High-pressure may build in briefly near the West Coast. and we may finally see a warmup back to average highs in the 70's by the middle of next week.  

ridge

Extended Forecast

The high-pressure ridge near the coast may shift westward by the end of next week, with another cold trough digging into the West Coast.

trough

The teleconnection forecasts show that we could go into a negative PNA pattern the last week of September into the first week of October.

pna

During the winter this could be a cold and snowy pattern. The jet stream is weak this time of year and farther north, but things could still get a little interesting.

More Snow?

The long-range model runs show colder air for the end of the month.  It's too far out to track any specific storms. The models aren't overly wet yet, but some of the model runs like the latest GFS model run show the chance for some decent precipitation amounts.

precip

and snowfall...

snowfall

So we will keep a close eye on this potential cold and stormy pattern possibly starting around the end of next week. I will update again early next week. This time of year the long-range models tend to be less accurate than in winter as the seasons are changing... It will be interesting to see if this pattern of cold troughs continues into the fall season.

The Winter Ahead:

I'm still pulling together data and looking at different forecasts for the upcoming season. I prefer to wait until at least October to start getting into more details as things can change during the fall. The sea surface temps are very warm currently in the northeast Pacific and cool along the equator, but in the past week, we saw some cooling in the eastern Pacific...

ssts

...and the long-range models suggest some warming along the equator this fall.  So we will wait a little longer to see how things settle out. 

For now, I'll enjoy these early season dustings getting us in the mood for winter!

Stay tuned...BA

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