Snow on the Mountain

We enjoyed another taste of winter over the past week as many higher-elevation mountains received a dusting to a few inches of snow. Here is a sample of snowy pics from across the western United States.

Forecast for Monday 9/23 – Wednesday 9/25

We will start this week with light-to-moderate three-day totals in Alaska and western Canada, and no snow over the continental United States.

Forecast for Thursday 9/26 – Monday 9/30

This is when the fun will happen!

Even though this is a 4-8 day forecast, and you might be skeptical of forecasts that stretch out beyond a few days, I have high confidence in the upcoming storm. This is because the average of many models shows a strong signal for below-average temperatures across the west coast of the United States and Canada.

Temperatures that should be 10-15F degrees colder than average will set the stage for a storm that should bring plenty of snow.

The five-day snow forecast below is impressive, with 6-24 inches predicted in Canada (mostly in Alberta) as well as in the United States from California to Montana and for most areas in between.

The area of colder air and storminess should move very, very slowly from September 26-30, so some of these regions will experience multiple days of snow and a string of days with cold temperatures.

It appears that eastern Alberta, Montana, and Wyoming will have the best chances to see more than 12 inches of snow, and you can track the snow forecasts by searching for your favorite mountain here on OpenSnow and by looking at our “Top Forecasts” page.

Outlook for Tuesday 10/1 – Saturday 10/5

Looking to the 9-14 day forecast, otherwise known as ‘Fantasy Land’ because there is not much skill in these forecasts, we see that the average of 21 separate versions of the American GFS Ensemble model shows a pretty good chance that cooler-than-average temperatures will stick around the west coast and the Northern Rockies.

This means that early October snow is possible for the same regions that should see snow from September 26-30.

Thanks so much for reading, and look for early-season updates each Monday morning to build our excitement for a (hopefully) snowy season ahead.

JOEL GRATZ

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