Utah Daily Snow

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By Evan Thayer, Forecaster Posted 6 years ago February 14, 2018

Valentines and Presidents

Summary

A storm system will be moving into the region late today bringing snow to the high elevations tonight into early Thursday. Good skiing expected on Thursday. A break Friday and Saturday before the next system moves in on Sunday into Monday for late holiday weekend powder.

Short Term Forecast

Clouds and winds will be on the increase today as our southwest flow ahead of the front strengthens.  Moisture should gradually increase later today and we could see scattered showers as early as this afternoon.  The main part of the storm will arrive later in the evening and continue thru Thursday morning.  This is NOT a strong storm and is relatively quick hitting.  For the Wasatch, I'd expect most areas to be in the 3-6" range by tomorrow morning.  After the front, there will be a favorable northwest flow that could deliver enhancement to the Cottonwoods.  I'd expect them to be in the 5-10" range.  That's in line with the latest 12km NAM output for Upper LCC: 

The storm is going to deliver snow all the way down the spine of Utah, the highest totals will actually be in the central part of the state (where there's no ski areas): 

That is a high resolution NAM-WRF model.  It picks up topographic details very well.  You know what they say, "there's nothing like looking at a model in high resolution."   Notice the highest amounts are in the center of the state but most ski resorts are in the purple or pink which suggests several inches are likely for most of the state's high elevations.  

Thursday should be soft at the very least.  Probably not excessively deep.  Snow showers should clear out as we head thru the day.  

Friday and Saturday will be break days.  So if you're looking for clear conditions this weekend to ski, Saturday will be your day.  The next storm starts to push into the region on Sunday with clouds and winds picking up, perhaps some snow developing during the afternoon.  GFS and Euro have come into better agreement on the timing of the next storm.  The Euro is still slightly faster, but it's looking like a late Sunday into Monday event.  There is potential for it to be a bit stronger if it can tap into more moisture and stall a bit over the area.  

President's Day is Monday and hopefully the storm will bring deep enough snow that we won't feel any crust beneath the pow.  Nobody likes crust.... 

Well, most people don't like crust...

Details on that storm will be ironed out as we get closer.  Right now, both the GFS and Euro showing solid totals over the next two storms combined...

ECMWF (Euro): 

GFS: 

Extended Forecast

We will clear out by the middle of next week.  It looks like the trough over the western U.S. is going to reload.  Hopefully that means that stronger storms will return for the last week of February.  The good news is that there is absolutely no sign of ridging over Utah in the next 15 days.  The ridge is over the north eastern Pacific in the Gulf of AK.  Between now and the end of the month, it slowly retrogrades, allowing for the trough in the west to establish itself farther and farther west.  Generally, this is a good sign as storms will track in over the Pacific with more moisture.  At the very least, we should continue to see chances for storms thru the end of the month.  Whether or not it will be enough to actually make gains back toward average snowpack remains to be seen.  

Evan | OpenSnow

Announcements

Weather Wednesday will be live from Snowbird today.  Tune in to @VisitUtah on Instagram as I discuss tonight's storm, the weekend weather, and potential for President's Day powder.  

Geography Key:

Wasatch/Northern Utah:

(Northern Wasatch) Beaver Mountain, Cherry Peak, Powder Mountain, Nordic Valley, Snowbasin

(Central Wasatch) Brighton, Solitude, Deer Valley, Park City, Snowbird, Alta

(Southern Wasatch) Sundance

Uinta Mountains (east of Park City)

Southern Utah:

Eagle Point, Brian Head

About Our Forecaster

Evan Thayer

Forecaster

To Evan, 'The Greatest Snow on Earth' is more than just a motto - it’s a way of life. In 2010, he started Wasatch Snow Forecast as a way to share the best powder days with his fellow snow-lovers. Evan brings the same quality forecasts and weather discussions to OpenSnow and hopes you enjoy skiing/riding Utah as much as he does.

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