Utah Daily Snow
By Evan Thayer, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago November 22, 2022
Northern Utah Brush-by Tomorrow
Summary
A very weak system will brush far northern Utah on Wednesday with the chance for a few light snow showers. Otherwise, Thanksgiving holiday weekend should be mostly dry. A storm looks likely for early next week.
Short Term Forecast
We have a system that will brush far northern Utah on Wednesday. No real change from yesterday's discussion -- we should see a few northern mountain snow showers with maybe an inch or two if we are lucky. Here is the NBM output for this "storm":
Not much to speak of other than some light mountain snow and clouds.
We will dry out for Thanksgiving day and that should carry us through the weekend. I should point out that there are a couple of runs of models that have another very weak system possible this weekend. I think the most likely outcome is some clouds and no real precip, but I can't 100% rule it out.
Extended Forecast
Still, the heart of the forecast lies next week. We are going to see a trough dig down from the PNW into California and then work its way east across the Great Basin in the Mon-Wed timeframe next week. Right now, the most likely period for Utah to see precip will be Monday night and Tuesday. There are a lot of question regarding just how this system evolves. I have concerns that it will "dig" farther west and south and limit our totals (sound familiar?). Right now, here is the EPS mean precip for the western US for Mon-Wed of next week:
Best precip closer to the west coast with moderate totals inland. Here is the GEFS version of the same thing:
A bit more optimistic, but part of that is just the resolution of these ensemble members. Again, a moderate system is the most likely outcome. Finally, let's look at the trends in GEFS mean precip for Brighton:
The thicker, darker lines are the more recent runs. You can see we've generally trended up a bit. The mean is just over an inch of QPF which would be a moderate storm. Lots of uncertainty with this system so we'll continue to watch and fine-tune as we get closer.
As we head into December, I have no idea what to expect. The models have been all over the place. The most recent runs seem to be a bit more favorable for storms but I'm not biting quite yet.
Evan | OpenSnow