A break today (Sunday) before winter returns on Monday with a storm lasting until early Tuesday. Additional storms are likely for late in the week and into the weekend with more snow.
Short Term Forecast
We have a lot to talk about today. Unfortunately, I'm sick. Finally got that double line of doom last night -- so I'm isolating and trying to feel better. But it's left me with plenty of time to check all thing weather-related and come up with a forecast. So here we go...
Yesterday's weak system did just as expected -- mostly just clouds but a few areas, mainly in the Cottonwoods, are reporting an inch of new snow today. Some light accumulation up in Cache Valley and surrounding mountains as well.
A break today (Sunday) as we await the next storm which will arrive tomorrow. Monday should start out dry by snow will develop from north to south during the day. After the initial front tomorrow afternoon/evening, we should then have a favorable NW flow Monday night into early Tuesday. Here is our OpenSnow downscaled GEFS plume for upper LCC:
Notice there is a double peak of the blue bars. These represent hourly precip amounts. The heaviest snow will be with the main front Monday afternoon/evening, but then another peak Tuesday morning. NW flow orographics could fire up for LCC in particular. There's even a decent chance that we get lake-effect or lake enhancement. Total mean QPF (black line) has increased to near 1.2" which is up from 0.7" or so a couple of days ago. Our confidence in a bigger storm, at least for the Cottonwoods has increased.
Overall, I think 5-10" for most Wasatch mountains is still a good forecast. However, I think the Cottonwoods are likely to do better with 10-15" possible. What will also help with these totals is high snow ratios as this is a cold storm with very fluffy snow. I have to admit, I don't want to jinx it and I'm keeping my expectations in check, but this does have the characteristics of one of those storms where it seems like it just keeps snowin in LCC. I guess we shall see.
We should clear out later Tuesday with a break in the action through Thursday.
It looks likely that the active pattern will continue. This time, it will be storms digging off the California coast and pounding the Sierra Nevada. Utah will get sloppy seconds, but there should be plenty leftover for us to do well. Models generally have the first of these waves on Friday, but disagree on whether it arrives in the early morning or later in the afternoon.
Then, there is another storm possible for late weekend/early next week. Less confidence in this second wave, but I think it's likely we have additional chances for accumulating snow.
You can see all three of these storms on the GEFS meteograms:
You can see that confidence decreases with time as the columns are less solid and more diffuse. Still, I'm optimistic that we will get good snow in the next 48 hours with additional snow late in the week into the weekend and possible next week. We should see decent snowfall amounts that will further boost our snowpack numbers.
Evan | OpenSnow