Utah Daily Snow
By Evan Thayer, Forecaster Posted 10 days ago February 12, 2024
High pressure is in control currently. A system is going to pass mostly to our north later this week, but should bring some action to far northern Utah. Then, a more active pattern sets up for late weekend into next week as another trough moves into California.
Short Term Forecast
High pressure is in control which means mostly sunny skies and warming today and tomorrow and probably Wednesday as well. Good days to get up and explore or rip groomers or get caught up on some work.
By Wednesday, we could see clouds begin to increase, especially up north. On Thursday, a storm is going to pass to our north, but the northern third of Utah looks like it's going to get clipped. Yesterday, I discussed how models were handling this system differently. It looks like, for the most part, we've found a compromise and they are more in-line now. Here is what the GFS currently shows for Thursday into early Friday of this week:
Some generally light precip extends down to about the Cottonwoods, with some potentially heavier stuff up in the Bear River Range. Notice the Tetons get clobbered. Here is the same output but for the ECMWF (Euro):
The Euro is still a bit farther south with its good moisture, but seems to be trending toward the GFS. The ICON (German model) is still quite strong for northern Utah for what it's worth. Overall, the NBM (blend of models) shows this:
If this trends farther north, we could see little to nothing in the Central Wasatch. If it trends south, we could have a halfway decent storm. As it stands now, I think we are looking at a few inches of refresh in the Cottonwoods/PC area, with higher amounts up near the Idaho border. Might be worth a trip north on Thursday and/or Friday...?
Looks like a mostly dry late Friday and Saturday, but clouds could be on the increase again. By Sunday, we may have a chance for showers returning. This is thanks to a trough that will be parking itself off the coast of California.
This is a very familiar look for us this year. Again, our chances at precipitation will be dependent on how far east this low tracks. Waves of unorganized moisture are likely to move into Utah from Thursday through the first half of next week.
Exact amounts or timing at this point is impossible to say. Sometimes these type of patterns work out for us (like last week). Sometimes they don't. At the very least we should have opportunities for refreshes of creamy snow in a moist SW flow. Eventually the trough is going to move inland, but looks like it will weaken dramatically as it does so.
We may then have another break in the action late next week. It's worth mentioning that models have been showing a deep trough developing over the west in the 12-15 day window for a couple days now. This is the current EPS mean heights for Feb 25th:
This is total fantasy land stuff this far out, but it's a pattern with storm dropping in directly out of the northwest that we haven't seen much of so far this year. I'll be curious to see if this actually develops as it could mean a cold and snowy end to February.
Evan | OpenSnow
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