The past weekend was very wet across a large portion of the West, but this moisture was much-needed as most of the West is in a drought. 

For the upcoming week, an active and rainy pattern will persist across the Northwest and Northern Rockies over the next 3-5 days, while a warmer and drier pattern will take hold across the Southwest and Southern Rockies.

Check out the webcam view from the northern entrance of Yellowstone as of midday Monday. The cloudy/wet pattern can clearly be seen with rain across the lower elevations and fresh snow covering the higher elevations, including Electric Peak which is covered in heavy clouds. 

Forecast for Monday, May 24

The powerful storm responsible for widespread/heavy rain and mountain snow this past weekend is moving northeast toward Canada, while the next storm is making landfall in the Pacific Northwest.

Both of these storms can be seen on visible satellite as of midday Monday with widespread cloud cover across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, while skies are clear across the Southwest and Southern Rockies. (FYI: the white splotches over Colorado Rockies and to a lesser extent the Sierras are high elevation snow cover)

Rain and mountain snow will persist across Glacier National Park, Northwest Montana, Yellowstone/Tetons, and the Wind River Range on Saturday with more spotty showers over Idaho. As we head into Monday night, the heaviest precipitation will spread north into Canada.

Meanwhile, showers will continue to pick up across Washington and Oregon from Monday afternoon through Monday night.

The Southwest and Southern Rockies will be dry and sunny on Monday with temperatures running below average in most areas. In other words, it will be a great day to get out and play in the desert before hotter temperatures arrive later in the week.

Forecast for Tuesday, May 25

The PNW storm will continue to advance east on Tuesday with more showers for the Cascades, especially early in the day. However, the heaviest rain will spread into the Wallowa Mountains of Oregon early in the day and into the Northern Rockies on Tuesday afternoon and evening, with thunderstorms also possible.

This will be a widespread soaking rain event, though some of the heavier rain amounts through Tuesday night can be expected across the Salmon River and Bitterroot Mountains in Idaho and Western Montana as well as the Tetons and Yellowstone in Northwest Wyoming. Snow will also fall across the higher elevations.

Dry conditions will persist across the south on Tuesday with temperatures warming up to above-average levels for late May.

Forecast for Wednesday, May 26

Rain and high elevation snow will persist across the Northern Rockies through Wednesday, especially in Montana.

Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest including the Cascades will see a welcome break during the daytime hours on Wednesday with warmer temperatures and decreasing clouds. More rain will reach the Washington/Oregon coast late Wednesday night as another storm approaches.

Southern areas will remain warm, dry, and sunny from California to Colorado.

Forecast for Thursday, May 27

The next storm will make landfall on Thursday with heavy rain expected across the PNW Coast, Olympics, Cascades, and Coast Ranges. The Northern Rockies will finally see their break in the pattern on Thursday with warmer temperatures and sunny skies after many days in a row with wet weather.

The exceptions will be the Idaho Panhandle and Oregon Wallowas where showers will arrive Thursday afternoon.

The south will experience more of the sun with clear skies and warmer than average temperatures.

Outlook for Friday, May 28 – Monday, May 31 (Memorial Day Weekend)

On Friday, showers will linger across the Northern Cascades and will also spread into Idaho Panhandle and Northwest Montana, with fewer/more isolated showers farther south toward the Tetons.

This system will depart over the weekend with an overall drying trend across the Northwest and Northern Rockies.

Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is expected to develop over the Southwest, and the highest impacts are expected downstream of this Low where easterly flow is projected to steer moisture from the Great Plains toward the Continental Divide.

The Front Range of Colorado and the Sangre de Christos in Colorado and New Mexico (especially along the crests and eastern slopes of these ranges) will be in line for more active weather including thunderstorms over the holiday weekend, especially on Sunday and Monday.

This uptick in thunderstorm potential could extend north into the Medicine Bow and perhaps even the Bighorn Range in Wyoming.

West of the Divide, more isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible as far west as the Sierras and as far north as Southwest Montana.

Of course, we're still the better part of a week away, so stay tuned for updates in future forecasts re: Memorial Day weekend.

Outlook for Tuesday, June 1 – Friday, June 4

Long-range models are coming into good agreement that a strong ridge of high pressure will develop across the West during the first week of June, leading to warmer than average temperatures and drier conditions for most areas west of the Continental Divide.

East of the Divide, northwest flow around the ridge of high pressure could allow for some "backdoor" cold fronts to arrive from the plains, resulting in cooler and more unsettled periods of weather for eastern ranges in Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico.

Thanks so much for reading and check back for my next forecast on Wednesday, May 26th!

ALAN SMITH

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