The first half of the week has been very wet across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Check out the radar-estimated precipitation totals for the 3-day period ending on Wednesday morning. The Bitterroot Range, Flathead Range, Bob Marshall Wilderness, and Glacier National Park in Montana received the heaviest rain and precipitation totals. 

Forecast for Wednesday, May 26

Currently, two storm systems are impacting or will soon be impacting northern regions of the U.S. The first system responsible for recent wet weather is located over Montana and will exit on Wednesday night. The second system will make landfall on the Washington & Oregon coastlines on Wednesday night.

Both of these features can be seen clearly on satellite as of midday Wednesday.

Ahead of the second storm, the Pacific Northwest is enjoying a welcome break in the wet pattern. Check out the webcam from Hurricane Ridge in Olympic National Park, which shows mostly sunny skies as of midday Wednesday.

Lingering showers on Wednesday from the departing storm will favor the Tetons, Yellowstone, and Beartooths, before drying out on Wednesday night as most of the rain exits onto the plains. Rain from the next storm will reach the Olympic Peninsula and Northwest Oregon Coast on Wednesday night.

Farther south, dry and sunny conditions will prevail.

Forecast for Thursday, May 27

Rain will fall across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday with the heaviest amounts expected in the Olympics and North Cascades. The Northern Rockies will enjoy a welcome break in the pattern with warmer temperatures and fewer clouds, but showers will spread into the Idaho Panhandle and Northwest Montana on Thursday Night.

Farther south, a weak disturbance will move across the Four Corners with afternoon thunderstorms possible across the southern and central mountain ranges of Colorado. 

Forecast for Friday, May 28

The PNW storm from the previous day will weaken as it moves across the Northern Rockies on Friday, with generally light to moderate showers lingering across the Washington Cascades early in the day, and picking up across Montana and Northern Wyoming in the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible as well, but overall rain amounts will be lighter compared to previous days.

Farther south, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Continental Divide in Colorado and New Mexico. Western areas from Utah to California will stay warm, dry, and sunny.

Forecast for Saturday, May 29

A dry and sunny pattern will take hold across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies just in time for the holiday weekend.

Meanwhile, a trough low pressure will develop across the Southwest. Energy downstream of this trough will interact with increasing low-level moisture from the southern plains to result in an uptick in thunderstorm potential across the Colorado Front Range and Sangre de Christo Range beginning on Saturday afternoon.

Forecast for Sunday, May 30 - Monday, May 31

The remainder of the holiday weekend is looking wet and stormy across Colorado and New Mexico, especially for areas along and east of the Continental Divide.

Low-level easterly winds will transport moisture from the southern plains toward the Continental Divide on Sunday, setting the stage for an active day.

As the airmass becomes unstable, widespread thunderstorms are likely across the Front Range and Sangre de Christo Range on Sunday afternoon with locally heavy rains possible.

While the most widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely along and east of the Continental Divide, isolated thunderstorms will be possible west of the Divide on Sunday afternoon as well, including Western Colorado, the Uinta Range in Utah, and the Wind River Range in Wyoming.

On Sunday night and Monday, the pattern will likely transition to a more widespread, steady rain event along and east of the Divide in Colorado and New Mexico. Cooler temperatures will result in fewer thunderstorms across Colorado, while greater instability could result in better thunderstorm coverage in New Mexico.

The remainder of the holiday weekend will be dry and sunny west toward California, and also across the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Get out and enjoy if you live in or are visiting these regions!

Outlook for Tuesday, June 1 – Sunday, June 6

Early next week, the West Coast and Northern Rockies will remain in a warm and dry pattern while Colorado and New Mexico will also see a trend toward drier conditions. 

Later next week, confidence decreases in the forecast due to poor model agreement. The European Model projects high pressure to hold strong with a warm and dry pattern for most of the West. However, the American GFS Model and to a lesser extent the Canadian Model both hint at a possible system impacting the Northern Rockies late next week. 

Thanks so much for reading and check back for my next forecast on Friday, May 28th!

ALAN SMITH

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