The pattern heading into Memorial Day weekend will feature a drying trend across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, while the Southern Rockies – notably Colorado and New Mexico – will see a wet pattern develop with rain and thunderstorms, especially along and east of the Continental Divide.

While some unsettled weather is lingering across the north as of midday Friday, beautiful and sunny conditions are prevailing farther south at Lake Tahoe. The Sierras could actually see some isolated thunderstorm activity early in the weekend, but for the most part, it will be an outstanding holiday weekend for this region.

Forecast for Friday, May 28

As of midday Friday, a storm system is moving across the Northern Rockies with clouds and scattered showers, mainly across Northern Montana, while farther west, shower activity is beginning to clear out across the Cascades.

As the afternoon progresses, some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity could extend as Northern Wyoming with the highest coverage expected across the Beartooths. 

The Continental Divide region in Colorado and New Mexico will enjoy one last relatively quiet day, but a subtle uptick in moisture will result in afternoon thunderstorms developing in New Mexico with more isolated activity in Colorado. 

Forecast for Saturday, May 29

A developing trough of low pressure over the Southwest will interact with increasing low-level moisture and upslope winds east of the Continental Divide to result in afternoon thunderstorms across the Front Range and Sangre de Christo Range in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. Showers could continue through the night as well.

The Sierras will also see some thunderstorm activity on Saturday afternoon with isolated storms also possible across the Uinta and Wasatch Ranges in Utah.

Farther north, the PNW Coast, Cascades and Northern Rockies will enjoy an outstanding start to the weekend.

Forecast for Sunday, May 30

Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate along and east of the Divide in Colorado and New Mexico on Sunday as the trough over the Southwest deepens and starts to move east.

A more widespread, steady rain is likely across the Colorado Front Range with less thunderstorm activity, while New Mexico will see greater instability and more numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain also possible.

West of the Divide in Colorado, clouds and rain will be less widespread compared to East of the Divide, but instability will be higher. Therefore, the San Juans, Elks, Gores, etc. will see higher potential for afternoon thunderstorms.

Isolated thunderstorms could also extend farther west into the La Sals, Bryce Canyon, Uintas, Wasatch, and the Wind River Range.

Forecast for Monday, May 31

Cool and wet conditions with limited thunderstorm activity will persist across the Colorado Front Range and areas east of the Divide on Monday, while New Mexico will see more widespread and heavier thunderstorms once again.

The San Juans will also see higher thunderstorm potential compared to areas farther east in Colorado. West of the Colorado border, mostly dry conditions will prevail though some isolated thunderstorm activity couldn't totally be ruled out across Utah. 

The West Coast and the Northern Rockies will continue to enjoy warm and dry weather for Memorial Day.

Forecast for Tuesday, June 1

Tuesday will feature a transition to a drier pattern across Colorado and New Mexico, though some lingering shower and thunderstorm activity remains possible.

Conditions will really begin to heat up across the desert and low elevation areas in the far west as a strong ridge of high pressure takes control.

Forecast for Wednesday, June 2 – Sunday, June 6

The pattern will switch to summer-like across the West during the first week of June as a strong ridge of high pressure builds. Warmer than average temperatures can be expected throughout the West along with a generally dry pattern compared to recent weeks.

Toward the end of the week, a trough of low pressure is projected to approach the Northwest/Northern Rockies, which could result in some showers and thunderstorms. 

An easterly feed of low-level moisture from the plains will likely result in thunderstorm activity returning to areas along and east of the Continental Divide in Colorado and New Mexico as well. 

Thanks so much for reading and have a great weekend! Check back for my next forecast on Tuesday, June 1st!

ALAN SMITH

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