Summer is wasting no time this year as we head into the first week of June (Meteorological Summer begins today, on June 1st). A strong ridge of high pressure setting up across the Western U.S. will result in the first widespread period of hot temperatures across the valleys and lower elevations.

Temperatures over the next several days will be well above average for most of the West. In fact, record highs will be possible across portions of the Inland Northwest where the extent of the heat is unusual for this early in the summer.

Aside from the early summer warmth, the Southern Rockies and even the Pacific Northwest will see thunderstorm activity from time to time.

Forecast for Tuesday, June 1

The warm pattern is just starting to take hold on Tuesday in response to a ridge of high-pressure building over the Western U.S.

Meanwhile, a couple of features over the Southwest U.S. are continuing to result in an unsettled pattern across Colorado & New Mexico, though the pattern is not as wet compared to recent days. 

The atmosphere is becoming unstable across Colorado and New Mexico as of early Tuesday afternoon, and this will result in a good chance of thunderstorms, especially near and east of the Continental Divide.

Taking a look at radar, showers can already been seen developing across Colorado and Northern New Mexico as of 12:38 pm MDT on Tuesday.

Rainfall amounts will be lighter compared to recent days, but Colorado and New Mexico haven't broken out of the wet pattern just yet. Meanwhile, the remainder of the West is looking very dry and sunny through Tuesday afternoon.

Forecast for Wednesday, June 2

The hot pattern will continue to take hold across most of the West on Wednesday, excluding areas east of the Divide in Colorado and New Mexico.

Additional thunderstorms can be expected across the Southern Rockies, with more of a focus in New Mexico vs. Colorado due to greater instability.

The atmosphere will also become unstable across the Southern Cascades in Oregon with isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. However, any rainfall from Cascade thunderstorms will be minimal with more wind than rain expected.

Forecast for Thursday, June 3

The heatwave continues on Thursday, but a disturbance will move across the Northwest, which could trigger some thunderstorms across Eastern Oregon and Northern Idaho. Farther south, the Sierras could see some isolated thunderstorm activity as well.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop once again across New Mexico and Southern Colorado, but the day should at least start out with sunshine and warmer temperatures compared to previous days.

Notice on the precipitation forecast below how little rainfall is expected with the mentioned thunderstorms forecasted for the Northwest. These "dry" thunderstorms tend to produce gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning, but only brief/light rain. 

Forecast for Friday, June 4

The disturbance moving across the Northwest will result in an uptick in thunderstorms across the Northern Rockies of Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho on Friday with isolated activity also expected across portions of Utah.

Colorado and New Mexico will continue to see isolated thunderstorms, but with lesser coverage compared to prior days.

Outlook for Saturday, June 5 – Sunday, June 6

Over the weekend, we'll see a cooling trend across the Northwest while the remainder of the West may see some slight moderation in temperatures but will remain warmer than average.

A series of disturbances moving across the Northwest will result in a return to showery weather across the Washington Coast, Olympics, and Cascades, while farther south, the pattern will remain drier in Oregon.

Meanwhile, moisture will begin to increase again over Colorado and Northern New Mexico with thunderstorm chances ramping back up.

Outlook for Monday, June 7 – Friday, June 11

Next week, a trough of low pressure will set up along the West Coast, putting an end to the heat wave with temperatures expected to run cooler than average across Washington, Oregon, and California.

As for rain chances, the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies look to be in line to see the bulk of the moisture arriving via south or southwest flow. Meanwhile, a secondary area of low pressure moving across the Southwest early next week could lead to a day or two of increased thunderstorm activity across Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

Thanks so much for reading and check back for my next forecast on Friday, June 4th!

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