August 2024 Review:

In August, air temperatures were well above their 1991-2000 average, thanks to ridging over the region for most of the month. The average European temperature was 1.57°C above the 1991-2020 August average, making it the second warmest August on record for Europe. The pattern was similar to July, with heatwaves gripping many regions and temperatures exceeding 40°C in southeast Europe, including Romania, Serbia, and Bosnia. Italy, Spain, and Portugal experienced heatwaves as well, while a record temperature was set in the canton of Ticino, Switzerland. 

In contrast, western Russia, Iceland, southwestern Scandinavia, and the northern United Kingdom had near or below-average temperatures. These temperature anomalies are in line with the persistent low pressure in the northeast Atlantic.

August was drier than average over most of continental Europe with below-average precipitation, particularly over the Alps. Drought continued to worsen during August in the Mediterranean region, especially in central and southern Italy, northeast Spain, northeast Greece, and central Turkey.

Dry conditions prevailed thanks to the strong ridge over northeastern Europe extending southwest through the continent into the Atlantic Ocean. In parts of Italy, Greece, and the Balkans, these conditions contributed to the spread and intensification of wildfires.

August was wetter than average in western Russia, Turkey, Scandinavia, Iceland, and parts of the northern seaboard in Germany and Belgium.

In some cases, heavy rainfall led to flooding in parts of Germany, Belgium, Romania, and even Spain. The storm track over southeast Europe produced several rounds of heavy precipitation in this region, while the persistent low pressure in the northeast Atlantic caused strong winds and heavy rain in the northern United Kingdom. Some of the flooding in Spain and Romania is captured below.

September 2024 Outlook:

Above-normal temperatures are expected across nearly all of Europe in September, with the strong ridge in northeast Europe persisting through the rest of the month. More ridging is forecast for southern and eastern Europe, bringing more warm and dry conditions in this region. The strongest above-normal temperature anomalies are expected in northeastern Europe below the ridge axis. Colder than normal temperatures are forecast only for the western part of the continent over southwest France, Spain, and Portugal.

A strong above-average precipitation signal is noted for much of Europe in September. Conditions are expected to be drier than normal across western Russia, the Baltic states, and Spain/Portugal.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

Fire conditions may finally start to improve with the above-normal precipitation forecast for much of the continent during September. Dry and warm conditions in eastern Europe/western Russia increase the likelihood of wildfires in this region. Current active wildfires as of today, September 7th, are shown below.

Thanks for reading the July 2024 review & August Outlook! Hopefully, the warm and dry conditions won't be as bad as expected. I will post the next monthly update in early September.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow