August was warm and dry across most of Europe, and the Alps were no exception. This weather finally came to an end, at least temporarily, with the first high-elevation snowfall of the season.

The highest elevations of the Alps along the France/Italy border saw between 8 - 12 in (20 - 30 cm) of snow Thursday to Friday. Check out a few shots of the snow last week. 

While this snow was confined to elevations above 10k feet (3000m), the potential storm next week could bring much more significant impacts. Before that, we may see another round of light high-elevation snow as well. 

A strong, but relatively small, closed low-pressure system dropped down all the way from Greenland over the British Islands and settled just off the coast of France and Spain. The storm brought heavy precipitation to Western Europe and the Western Alps, but the positioning off the coast kept the colder air west of the Alps. Heavy rain led to more flooding in this region while it was just cold enough at upper elevations for some snow.

As is often the case with closed lows, this system stalled off the coast from Thursday through Saturday and weakened. Finally, the storm has rejoined the prevailing west-to-east flow and will bring another round of precipitation to the region. As some cooler air moves into the mountains, some more light snow is possible above 9k (2700m) along the border between Switzerland/Italy/Austria. 

As this storm slowly departs on Tuesday, a large and surprisingly strong system will approach from the northwest. Impacts may be felt as early as Wednesday and continue through Sunday. This storm is really impressive, with the potential to bring more than three FEET of snow (1 m) to a wide area in the Alps. The latest guidance has now levels falling below 5k feet by Thursday. 

This looks like a mid-winter storm and the type I'd be tempted to chase if it were just a bit colder. Let's take a quick look at how this storm is coming together. First, we look at the pattern that delivered this week's snow. A storm drops down from over the British Isles and stalls off the coast of France/Spain. Later in the GIF, this storm begins to make its way east, bringing another round of light snow to the upper elevations Sunday night through Monday. 

 

At the end of the GIF, you can see a larger storm emerging in the northeast Atlantic. The next GIF picks up there.

This large, strong, and cold storm is expected to strengthen and then split, sending one lobe southward toward the Alps. An impressive arctic airmass will accompany this storm, as you can see below.

As the storm moves over the Alps, winds out of the north will push cold, moist air from the North Sea into the mountains. This setup, known as a Nordstau, can deliver huge snow totals to the Alps, often in Austria.

The latest model runs show this setup persisting for one to possibly three days. Depending on just how long this favorable pattern lasts, snow totals could end up in the 2 - 5 foot range in the upper elevations of the Austrian Alps. This setup is dependent on the storm track, which currently brings the persistent north winds to the eastern Alps in Austria. The latter part of this period is still six days away, so confidence in the exact track and therefore the high-end snow totals remains low. 

Let's take a look at how the European model has this storm playing out next week.

And an early look at snow totals from the same model.

This resembles a storm from the middle of Winter, and if the forecast stays on track, it will certainly look like the middle of winter by next weekend.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow