July 2024 Review:

July featured above-normal temperatures for much of Europe. In southern and eastern Europe, temperatures were well above their 1991-2020 average, thanks to ridging over the region for most of the month. Heatwaves gripped many regions with temperatures exceeding 40°C in Italy and Greece. The Balkans experienced widespread wildfires extending into Albania and Greece as well.

Parts of northwestern Europe had near or below-average temperatures, however, including northern France, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Denmark, and southern Norway and Sweden. The average European temperature was 1.49°C above the 1991-2020 July average, making it the second warmest July on record for Europe. The temperature anomalies are in line with the storm track over Scandinavia.

Drought worsened during July in southern and eastern Europe as dry conditions prevailed across much of the continent thanks to the persistent ridge in this region. However, July was wetter than average in northern Europe including the Baltic states, Denmark, the Netherlands, northern France, and England, as well as Turkey in the southeast. The storm track over northern Europe and Scandinavia produced heavy precipitation that led to flooding in parts of the Baltic states. 

It was slightly drier than normal over Ireland, Scotland, most of Iceland, and the Iberian Peninsula. Drought warnings continue in southern and eastern Europe as a large region spanning from western Russia southwards including the Balkans was much drier than average in July.

August 2024 Outlook:

Above-normal temperatures are expected across nearly all of Europe in August, with the upper-level pattern persisting through the rest of the month. More ridging is forecast for southern and eastern Europe, bringing more warm and dry conditions in this region.  The strongest above-normal temperature anomalies are expected in southeastern Europe below the ridge axis.

A strong above-average precipitation signal is noted for much of northern Europe once again, similar to last month. Conditions are likely to be drier than normal across Western, Central, Southern, and Eastern Europe.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

Fire conditions are expected to worsen throughout August with continued warm and dry conditions, especially in southern and eastern Europe, thanks to a persistent high-pressure system in this region. This dry and warm pattern increases the likelihood of wildfires in Southern and Eastern Europe. Current active wildfires as of today, August 8th, are shown below.

Thanks for reading the July 2024 review & August Outlook! Hopefully, the warm and dry conditions won't be as bad as expected. I will post the next monthly update in early September.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow