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By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 11 days ago June 11, 2024

May 2024 Review & June Outlook for Europe

May 2024 Review:

Winter stuck around for much of May as the Alps received late-season snow storms during the beginning, middle, and end of the month. Throughout the month, an active pattern brought several systems through Western and Southern Europe. This pattern resulted in drier conditions in northern and eastern Europe. 

Temperatures for May were below average in the Alps, Pyrenees, northern Spain, southern France, and eastern Europe. Meanwhile, most of northern, southern, and western Europe were above average. The temperature anomalies are in line with the northerly storm track that delivered colder air into the region that hung around longer in the mountainous regions in and around the Alps and Pyrenees. 

Precipitation anomalies were a mixed bag across Europe in May. A dip in the jet stream brought several Nordstau storms through western and southern Europe in a northerly flow throughout the month. This led to above-normal precipitation in most of western Europe, Italy, and the Pyrenees, and well above-normal precipitation and snow in the Alps due to the orographic effects of the northerly winds. 

Several significant snow storms brought heavy snow to the Alps, especially at the start and end of the month.

Several respectable May powder days occurred at some of the glacier resorts that remained open, including Hintertux in Austria.

The parade of storms led to record or near-record precipitation totals in Germany, France, and Italy. Flooding and widespread damage occurred in and around the Alps, including Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands. 

Drier conditions prevailed across northern and eastern Europe and most of Spain, parts of which are already experiencing a long-lasting drought, as a result of the storm track over western Europe. High pressure over northern and eastern Europe directed most storms west or north of this region.

June 2024 Outlook:

After a slow transition to Spring, it doesn’t look like Summer is in a hurry to get to Europe either, as an active and wet pattern is expected for western Europe and the Alps/Pyrenees in June. Active weather has been ongoing since the start of the month, and another round of snow is expected for the Alps and Pyrenees from Tuesday, June 11th through Friday, the 14th. Additional storms are lined up for the latter part of the month as well.

This pattern is expected to bring cooler temperatures to Western Europe, though most of the region may not finish below normal by the end of the month. Elsewhere, northern, southern, and eastern Europe are expected to be well above normal as high-pressure ridging dominates much of the continent in June.

A strong above-average precipitation signal is noted in the eastern Alps and southern Norway. Elsewhere, a large area of above-average precipitation is noted in western, northern, and northern part of eastern Europe, as an active northerly storm track continues for much of the month.   

Conditions are likely to be drier across southern Europe as ridging is expected in this region. Most of Italy, Mediterranean Spain, and the southern part of Eastern Europe are expected to be drier than normal.  

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

The ongoing influence of high-pressure systems over southern and eastern Europe is expected to lead to higher-than-normal temperatures and lower precipitation. This dry and warm weather pattern increases the likelihood of wildfires, especially in Mediterranean countries like Spain, Italy, and Greece​

Thanks for reading and enjoy the start of summer! I will post the next monthly update in early July.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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About The Author

Luke Stone

Forecaster

Luke Stone earned his M.S. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Utah, with a research focus on seasonal forecasting. Luke has scored deep days around the world, including coast-to-coast across the United States, Canada, and Europe.

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