Snow reports on Wednesday morning

Below are the snow reports from Tuesday midday through Tuesday night, from the mountains that are still open and reporting snow.

Arapahoe Basin – 3”
Breckenridge – 6”
Eldora – 1”
Loveland – 2”
Winter Park – 4”

Checking webcams, other northern and central mountains that are not open show similar snow amounts. Enjoy the fresh snow if you head out on Wednesday morning!

Snow from Thursday night through Saturday midday

It appears that model forecasts are converging on the general storm track, which gives us some confidence in the timing of the snow, but there is still considerable uncertainty about other parts of the storm.

Here’s the overview.

* The storm will bring LOTS of moisture into Colorado. Moisture is the fuel for snow, so lots of moisture could translate into big snow totals. There is a good chance for double-digit snow totals for many mountains.

* The first part of the storm, from Thursday night through Friday afternoon, is the most uncertain in my mind. We’ll see the possibility for intense squalls that could drop 1-2 inches of snow per hour, but these squalls will be somewhat randomly placed, not affecting all mountains. The best chance for intense snow on Thursday night will be in the southern mountains, with these squalls or bands of snow moving north and east into the central and northern mountains during Friday midday.

The image below shows three snow forecasts for Thursday night. Notice the potential for deep amounts, and also the inconsistency of the forecast from run-to-run (older forecast on the right, latest on the left).

The image below is the same as above, but for Friday during the day. Again, lots of potential, and still some uncertainty.

* The second part of the storm from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning is when we’ll see winds from the east across most of the state and extending from the lower elevation of the eastern plains up to about 30,000 feet. These east winds will bring the most intense snow to areas east and near the continental divide, including Cameron Pass, Rocky Mountain National Park, Eldora, Berthoud Pass & Winter Park, Loveland and Arapahoe Basin, and potentially Breckenridge as well.

The image below shows the forecast for the Eisenhower Tunnel area (Loveland ski area). The most consistency in the forecast is for snow late on Friday through early Saturday. Amounts are 4-25 inches for all models, with the more reliable American GFS model (darker lines) showing 13-25 inches. The average across both models is 14 inches.

* The third part of the storm will be on Saturday morning through midday when we’ll see snow showers continue for the northern and eastern mountains as moisture wraps around the storm and cooler air filters in from the north.

Snow amounts and deepest powder

Some locations could get significant snow on Thursday night or Friday, but as I showed above, these accumulations could be more randomly placed, and may not happen at the resorts that are still open.

The better chance to ski the deepest powder will be on Saturday morning for all mountains and especially the mountains that are still open in the north and northeast.

These mountains will be open for the storm:
Arapahoe Basin
Breckenridge
Eldora
Loveland
Purgatory (open Saturday & Sunday, skiing is FREE for everyone!)
Winter Park / Mary Jane

Temperatures will start warm on Thursday night and Friday with snow levels around 8,000-9,000 feet, then snow levels will lower to 6,500 feet on Saturday morning in the northern and northeastern mountains. This should mean that the snow quality will improve during the storm, and by Saturday morning, we should be skiing on nice quality pow. Perhaps not uber fluff, but the higher elevations should ski nicely.

Average snow amounts for this storm will likely be in the 8-16 inch range, including the mountains that are still open. Due to the high amount of moisture, I would not be surprised to see a few spots have snow totals that are 18+ inches.

It looks like Saturday will be the last cold powder day for a while. I can’t rule out additional snow through the end of April, with the next chance for some accumulations on Tuesday, April 24th near and east of the divide. However, I don’t see additional cold storms in the forecast, so if you want to ski fresh and deep powder, keep your eye on Saturday AM!

Stay tuned and thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains