While Thursday will be dry, we can already see the approaching storm as it swirls over the California coast.

After looking at the latest forecast data, I am NOT going to make big changes to the forecast. Most of the points below are similar to my post on Wednesday, though I did tweak a few things.

* The storm will bring LOTS of moisture into Colorado. Moisture is the fuel for snow, so lots of moisture could translate into big snow totals. There is a good chance for double-digit snow totals for many mountains.

* The first part of the storm, from Thursday night through Friday afternoon, is the most uncertain in my mind. We’ll see the possibility for intense squalls that could drop 1-2 inches of snow per hour, but these squalls will be somewhat randomly placed, not affecting all mountains. The best chance for intense snow on Thursday night will be in the southern mountains, with these squalls or bands of snow moving north and east into the central and northern mountains during Friday midday.

* The second part of the storm from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning is when we’ll see winds from the east across most of the state and extending from the lower elevation of the eastern plains up to about 30,000 feet. While these winds will be rather light, they will still favor mountains near and east of the continental divide, including Cameron Pass, Rocky Mountain National Park, Eldora, Berthoud Pass & Winter Park, Loveland and Arapahoe Basin, and potentially Breckenridge as well.

* The third part of the storm will be on Saturday morning through midday when we’ll see snow showers continue for the northern and eastern mountains as moisture wraps around the storm and northwest winds keep the snow going.

Timing

For the southern mountains and the central mountains, there could be powder on Friday morning and Friday midday.

For the central and northern mountains, we might see some powder on Friday midday and afternoon, though the deepest snow will be on Saturday morning.

The following mountains are still spinning their lifts:
Arapahoe Basin
Breckenridge (limited terrain, last day Sunday 4/22)
Eldora (last day Sunday 4/22)
Loveland (last day Sunday 5/6)
Mary Jane (last day Sunday 5/6)
Purgatory (open ONLY Saturday & Sunday, skiing is FREE for everyone)
Winter Park (last day Sunday 4/22)

Temperature

Readings will start warm on Thursday night and Friday with snow levels around 8,000-9,000 feet, then snow levels will lower to 6,000-7,000 feet on Saturday morning in the northern and northeastern mountains. This should mean that the snow quality will improve during the storm, and by Saturday morning, we should be skiing on nice quality snow. Perhaps not uber fluff, but the higher elevations should ski nicely.

Snow Amounts

Average snow amounts for this storm will likely be in the 8-16 inch range. Due to the high amount of moisture, I would not be surprised to see a few spots report snow totals that are 16+ inches.

Below are three snow forecasts. Still lots of variability between models, but I feel good about the 8-16 inch forecast.

Below is the range of versions from the American GFS and Canadian models for Berthoud Pass. The range is 3-22 inches with an average of 13 inches. The somewhat more reliable American GFS model (darker blue lines) has the higher range of 13-22 inches.

Again, I expect close to or above double-digit totals for many mountains, with Saturday morning offering the best quality and deepest snow in the northern mountains.

It looks like Saturday will be the last cold powder day for a while (for the season?). While I can’t rule out additional snow through the end of April, with the next chance for light accumulations on Tuesday, April 24th, I do NOT see additional cold storms in the forecast, so if you want the pow, plan for Saturday AM!

Stay tuned and thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains