Ongoing, Storm #3: Friday night - Saturday midday

Snow began to fall on Friday evening and has continued through early on Saturday morning. Below are the snow totals through about Saturday at 600 am based on official resort reports, snow stake cams, and backcountry SNOTEL sites.

Breckenridge: 7”

Aspen Mountain: 5”

Arapahoe Basin: 4”

Copper Mountain: 4”

Crested Butte: 4”

Vail: 4”

Berthoud Pass: 3-4”

Cameron Pass: 3-4”

Rocky Mountain National Park: 3-4”

Keystone: 3”

Loveland: 3”

Snowmass: 3”

Beaver Creek: 2”

Buttermilk: 2”

Telluride: 2”

Steamboat: 1”

Winter Park: 1”

Snow will continue to accumulate through about Saturday midday, so expect an additional 1-3 inches to be added to these totals. The radar on Saturday morning shows the ongoing snow showers over the northern 2/3rds of Colorado.

Going into this storm, my thinking was 3-7 inches favoring the northern mountains.

That has worked out rather well, though there are always outliers, some hard to explain.

For example, the SNOTEL site on Berthoud Pass shows 3-4 inches while the snow stake cam at nearby Winter Park only shows 1 inch. The pass can get more snow than the resort, so this isn’t a shocking development, but during most of the recent storms, the resort’s snow stake cam showed similar or more snowfall than the pass. There are quirks to each storm.

Dry Saturday evening to Sunday morning

Most places will see no snow. Some higher-elevation northern mountains could see clouds and a few flurries continue during this time.

Storm #4: Sunday midday to Monday midday

This storm has always looked like the strongest in the series and it continues to look that way.

Snow may start in the northern mountains on Sunday morning or midday, then the most intense snow should fall from Sunday evening through Monday morning.

The track of this system will be further south than the previous two storms, so I expect nearly all mountains to get healthy snow with the exception being the very southern mountains that won’t be favored by the wind from the west or northwest.

I continue to like the 5-10+ inch range for this storm. Since the energy with this storm will be stronger than the previous systems, I expect that we might see a few reports of more than 12 inches by Monday midday.

If this were mid-winter and all mountains were open, I’d be getting excited for a Monday morning powder day not only because of the new snow on Sunday night, but because the snow base would be soft due to the consistent snowfall over the past few days. You can’t beat fresh pow on top of a soft base. That’s what we’re looking for!

Where can you ride?

I am repeating myself in this section, so if you’ve read it before, please skip!

As of right now, only Loveland and Arapahoe Basin are open for full-time operations with very limited terrain (2 runs) and Wolf Creek is open on weekends only with a good amount of terrain (maybe 50-75% this weekend). These are the inbounds spots to get turns.

If you head into the backcountry, remember that avalanche risk can exist anytime there is snow on the ground so do not brush this off as early season and lose focus. Also, with 1+ FEET of snow in the forecast and strong winds over the northern mountains, it’s time to put away the “this is just the early season” ideas. Check CAIC (Colorado Avalanche Information Center) as they are the best resource for avalanche information and forecasts.

Tuesday and Wednesday, November 6-7 should bring additional light snow to the northern mountains. Snow conditions will stay soft with the clouds and flurries/snow showers.

Thursday through Friday, November 8-9 now looks like another storm is possible, but current forecasts show its track favoring the eastern plains of Colorado and not our mountains.

The next storm could arrive around November 10-15. Most models continue to show ‘something’ during these dates, but there is now more uncertainty in the forecast than yesterday, so I really have no clue.

To set expectations appropriately, this period is so far out and the model forecasts are so different than I am NOT getting excited about a certain scenario. We could miss any storm that does form and our weather would be dry. We could see a slow-moving, strong system. We could get brushed by a fast-moving storm to our north. Really, I have no clue. But at least a chance for a storm so I'll keep watching.

Thanks for reading and look for my next update on Sunday, November 4.

JOEL GRATZ

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

* Thursday, November 8 in Evergreen at Boone Mountain Sports / Evergreen Brewery. Free to attend. Beer and food available for purchase, and the talk starts at 7 pm. Details here.

* Friday, November 9 in Breckenridge at the Breckenridge Backstage Theater. Party, my talk, and a movie. Time from 500-830pm. Details here.

* November 28 in Vail.

* December 5 in Denver.

 

OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only)

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains