UPDATE!

Abasin just announced that they are opening on Friday morning. Woohoo! More details → http://opsw.co/2dBBZxe

Summary

Tuesday night’s storm dropped 2-5 inches on the northern mountains with 1-2 inches in parts of the central mountains. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday and Thursday, which should help the snowmakers do their thing. We’ll stay dry through the weekend, with the next storm likely arriving early next week.

Details

The short but intense period of snow forecasted for Tuesday night came to fruition! Based on webcams and SNOTEL data, most northern mountains picked up 2-5 inches with an inch or two falling in the northern part of the central mountains, around Aspen.

Winter Park and Keystone show the highest resort totals based on their snow stake cams, and I bet that a few other backcountry spots further north (like in the Never Summer Range and near Buff Pass) also received similar amounts.

Wednesday’s weather will be chilly with some clouds lingering over the central and northern mountains. The cool weather will continue Wednesday night, through Thursday, and into Thursday night.

Then on Friday we’ll begin to warm up more noticeably, with the warm weather lasting through next Monday, October 24th.

In terms of precipitation, don’t expect any through late afternoon on Monday the 24th - high pressure will control our weather.

Extended Outlook

The next chance for precipitation will likely be from the night of Monday, October 24th through Wednesday morning, October 26th.

Looking at 51 versions of the European model for Crested Butte, right in the middle of Colorado, 47 of the 51 versions show at least some precipitation falling early next week. I’m picking that up from the top portion of the graphic below.

The average amount of precipitation from all 51 versions is called the “Ensemble Mean” and is shown as the green bars at the bottom of the graphic. The ensemble mean predicts about 0.5 inches of precipitation falling next Tuesday, October 26th, plus or minus 12-ish hours.

Based on a warm snow-to-liquid ratio of 10:1 to 12:1, this points to snowfall of about 5-6 inches next Tuesday, though of course the real range of outcomes based on the above forecast is between 1-24 inches ... so it goes with one-week forecasts:-)

Also, the temperature outlook for this system shows that this will be a warmer storm, with the deepest snow falling above 10,000 feet.

Fun with 6-7 day forecasts, eh? I’d love to focus on shorter-term weather, but sometimes we have to look further out to find the fun!

Snowmaking

Temperatures may be cool enough on Wednesday for snowmaking all day, and they will be plenty cold on Wednesday night. Thursday night should also offer good conditions for snowmaking. After that, the nighttime temperatures will be marginal for a few nights until our next storm cools things off early next week.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for another update later this week!

JOEL GRATZ

THIS Friday, October 21st: The 80's Ski Party in Denver

This is such a fun party! Your ticket includes FREE beer and FREE pizza (until it runs out) and balloon drop prizes. Grab your neon clothes and come dance the night away to your favorite 80's tunes! Event proceeds benefit First Descents, a nonprofit providing life-changing outdoor adventures for young adults impacted by cancer. More info & tickets here: http://opsw.co/2dTnx6f

NEXT Monday, October 24th: Live Podcast recording in Boulder

This is going to be awesome. I’ll be joining a live panel of some of the finest folks in the ski industry, talking about what’s new for this season. See the list of dignitaries and RSVP here (or if you can’t see the link, just come to Neptune Mountaineering at 6pm on Monday): http://opsw.co/2ehZ3kC

NYTimes Article about Weather Forecasting

Curious about weather forecast technology and how the US models compare to others? The NYTimes just published this in-depth story: http://opsw.co/2e4cvM5

Did you know that you can get more from OpenSnow?

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