On Friday night, most higher-elevation mountains saw a few snow flurries and snow showers, and Crested Butte picked up 3-4 inches which was likely due to the west-southwest winds ahead of the storm (this is by far the best wind direction for CB).

Now at 6am on Saturday morning, temperatures are still warm across the state and the freezing level is around 10,000 feet. The radar shows rain and snow moving from southwest to northeast, and the whole line is pushing very slowly to the east.

The storm that will bring snow to Colorado on Saturday and Saturday night just passed through Utah and dropped 10-16 inches. This shows the intensity of the snow that is coming our way, though I don’t think our totals will be quite this high as the storm will be weakening and moving to the south of Colorado.

The big change I want to make to the forecast is to slow the storm by about 3-4 hours. This might not seem like a big change, but it likely means that some mountains will receive more snow after lifts close on Saturday, so Sunday morning should be good.

The forecasts below are for snowfall on Saturday night. The left image is a forecast made most recently, at about Friday night at midnight, and the right image shows a forecast made six hours previously. Notice how the heaviest precipitation (crudely shown with a red line) has shifted to the north. This shows that the storm has slowed.

Storms that cut-off from the main west-to-east flow of weather, like this storm is doing now, almost always move more slowly than the forecast models believe. And this storm is no exception, though it’s hard for me to adjust and slow the forecast ahead of time as I don’t know if the storm will slow by a few hours or close to a day. The atmosphere is always making us work for the snow!

Aside from the storm slowing by about 3-ish hours I have no other big changes to make.

Heavy snow just began at Steamboat (northwest Colorado) at 6am on Saturday and they should receive heavy snow through midday, with the best powder around midday.

Northern mountains closer to I-70 should see heavy snow begin by midday or early afternoon and the snow should fall through early evening. This means that the best powder skiing will occur during the end of the day Saturday and first chair on Sunday.

Central mountains should see heavier snow start later in the afternoon and extend through late evening, so last chair Saturday and first chair Sunday seems like the best call.

Southern mountains are hard to nail down. They might not see much snow on Saturday with more on Saturday night and Sunday. The snow on Sunday will likely come in waves rather than a steady, intense band. Sunday is likely the best powder day here, but my confidence is lower.

And eastern mountains, like Eldora, Echo, and Monarch, should see a pop in snowfall on Saturday night as winds blow from the east. This means that Sunday morning should offer the most powder.

Total snow amounts will likely average 5-10 inches, and the snow should be on the denser side due to the warmer air, though with air cooling through the storm, the snow should be right-side up with lighter snow on top of denser snow. Also, if the band of heavier snow lingers over an area for a few extra hours, snow amounts could go over 12 inches, like we saw in Utah.

The storm will then hang out over New Mexico on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. We will likely see waves of snow and clouds move across Colorado during these days, with a few more inches for the southern and central mountains on Sunday, some snow showers and clouds on Monday, and more sunshine on Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday should be dry for most mountains.

We’ve been talking about a stormy period between February 18-28th, and that still looks like it’s on track.

The first storm during that period should bring snow to the southern and central mountains next Friday and Saturday, with snow possible for all mountains between about the 19-21st. Then at least 2-3 additional storms should move through Colorado between the 21st and 28th. I can’t offer more details than this, but rest assured that the models are not backing off the stormy pattern and we should close out the month of February with at least a few more powder days.

Thanks for reading and enjoy Saturday's powder (after short sleeves and shorts weather on Friday)!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains