The forecast for the timing of Saturday’s snowfall went reasonably well, though the accumulation pattern was surprised me.

First, here is the total snowfall from Friday morning through Sunday morning:

• Crested Butte - 14”
• Aspen Highlands - 14”
• Snowmass - 10”
• Aspen Mountain - 8”
• Buttermilk - 8”
• Powderhorn - 8”
• Beaver Creek - 8”
• Steamboat - 7”
• Sunlight - 6”
• Cooper - 5”
• Vail - 5”
• Silverton - 5”
• Monarch - 3”
• Breckenridge - 3”
• Monarch - 3”
• Telluride - 3”
• Purgatory - 3”
• Wolf Creek - 3”

Here are the snow totals from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. The snowfall favored mountains that are further to the west.

What we did see was moderate-to-heavy snow for most western mountains on Saturday and Saturday evening.

What we did not see was this heavy snow pushing toward the eastern mountains, and we also did not get much of a “pop” in the snow for the eastern mountains on Saturday night. I think part of the problem in the east was that the center of the storm lagged too far back to the west and we lost the energy needed to create the heavier snow.

Often, storms like this one, that cut off from the main west-to-east flow of weather, track further south and move more slowly than the models forecast, and this was another example of that model bias.

Now on Sunday morning, the center of the storm is spinning to the west of Baja and is pushing moisture northeast into Colorado.

Radar shows that light snow showers are falling in the southern and central mountains.

We will continue to see clouds and snow showers on Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday because the storm will move slowly and will continue to push moisture north into Colorado. Most of the snow showers will be light, some will be a little more intense, and I have near zero confidence about exact snow accumulations.

I had hoped that the southern mountains would see additional heavy snow on Sunday, and that might happen, but the waves of snow will move through Colorado in a random way, so I have little confidence in the forecast. You can see the uncertainty in the forecast by the wide range of possibilities for Wolf Creek. The GEFS model is showing 6-10 inches while the Canadian is showing 12-25 inches. That’s a range of 6-25 inches! I think the actual snowfall will be on the lower end of the range. Graphic by University of Utah.

Once this storm moves away, we should see mostly sunny skies on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

I think I’ve mentioned the possibility of a stormy period between February 18-28 for about the last 7-10 days, and we’re now finally close enough to this period to look at some details.

Here is the forecast from the American GFS Ensemble model (which combines multiple versions of its model) for the 18-28th.

You can see multiple areas of blue (storminess) moving close to and over Colorado, from west-to-east. This is good news. During this period, it appears that the general flow will be from the southwest and west-southwest, and this would favor the southern mountains and south-central mountains (like Irwin, Crested Butte, Monarch).

Light-to-moderate snow could begin as early as Friday and continue through the weekend. A stronger storm could bring more snow around Monday/Tuesday February 20-21, then an even stronger system could arrive later that week and weekend, February 24-26.

This is all still 5-14 days away so let’s not get too carried away with the details. We can, however, start getting excited for a 10-day stretch that could offer snow most days and plenty of powder, especially in the southern half of the state.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains