Monday was a gorgeous bluebird powder day at most mountains, and then clouds moved in on Monday night. Now on Tuesday morning, low clouds are covering the sky for the northern 2/3rds of the state. Here is a look at Loveland Pass with a bit of light illuminating the peaks under the clouds at sunrise.

The weather on Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday should be similar with times of clouds and a few showers, especially on Tuesday night. These showers might bring light accumulations to some mountains.

Then a storm will move across Colorado from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. The northern 2/3rds of the state should see the most snow from this storm, and both Thursday and Friday should offer soft turns and fresh powder.

The University of Utah ensemble forecast, a collection of many forecasts, shows snow amounts in the 5-15 inch range for the central mountains (the red arrow on the left), and I think the northern mountains will be in the same boat. The red arrow on the right shows the following storm early next week.

The OpenSnow Powder Finder shows similar amounts through Saturday, with upper single-digit to lower double-digit totals for the northern 2/3rds of the state.

Reaching these snow totals from Wednesday night through Saturday will require some patience. While we could see a period of heavier snow on Thursday morning as the storm arrives, the rest of the snow will likely be rather showery and accumulate more slowly over time.

Following the Thursday/Friday storm, I think we’ll see drier weather on Saturday and Sunday, but showers are still possible as moisture lingers and the pattern remains active over the central and northern Rockies.

All models show a cool and stormy pattern over the western US and Canada through about March 10th. The animation below is the forecast from the American GFS model ensemble, which is an average of many versions of the American GFS model. The blue colors show cooler, stormier weather. The blue colors never stray far from Colorado. This is a good thing.

The official NOAA 8-14 day outlooks support the idea that the next two weeks will bring below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation.

Breaking this down, our next storm should bring significant snow between February 27 to March 1st (Monday through Wednesday of next week). Then another storm will likely bring significant snow the following weekend, around March 3-4th.

While we should have high confidence that the models are correct about the overall cool and snowy pattern, we should have low confidence that the models understand the timing and strength of each individual storm that will hit Colorado during this pattern. The best snow conditions will likely result from multiple days of lighter snow rather than a single big event one night.

Thanks for reading and have a great Tuesday!

JOEL GRATZ

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains